Tuesday, July 11, 2017

July 11 - Metals flying, closed QQQ long

My XME (70%), FCX, GDX, X longs moved well today and XME may be ready to break out.  I've been teased so many times I am gather my expectations.

Pretty amazing how out of synch the indices are with each other.  I was originally thinking some July swoon but it might just chop around for a while.  I mean it could chop for the whole summer.  Unless playing short time frames I don't see much of an edge in SPY/ QQQ.

QQQ got close enough to the target so I closed it out

If this damn thing could break through resistance then could be clear skies until 35





 This could chop for months like last year.

Monday, July 10, 2017

July 10 - Tech bouncing and back on metals bandwagon, long XME, FCX, X, GDX

Flipped back to my previous big position in metals with the early morning strength.  FCX looks like a strong breakout and steel looks ready to pop.

QQQ making a nice move and looking to sell at gap fill around 140.


 FCX making a big move today.  If it sticks this might turn into a runner.
 GDX at support
 X making a rounded bottom
 XME still below lots of congestion.  If it closes above 31 it could move to 35 quickly.


Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 9 - Long small QQQ, still short XME

Closed SPY short on open Friday for a small gain and flipped to long QQQ later in the day.  Not the best entry but the positive divergence should give it a bump early this week.  With equities, until that 3-5% SPY correction happens (we might need to wait until Sept/ Oct for it), I am going to be a lot quicker to pull profits when I see them.

The gonzo metals/ commodities trade I am still eyeing but XME seemed to be struggling so wait and see here with a small short.  If it clears resistance I will hop back on.



False breakdown but this chop is pretty ugly.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

July 6 - switched to short SPY/ XME yesterday

I reversed my aggressive bullish position in XME/ FCX after seeing the market stall a bit and seeing no volume confirmation on the breakout from the wedge.

Sold everything Weds on open and put on SPY/ XME short at close.






Thursday, June 29, 2017

Jun 29 - Going for broke in commodities

I added COP July28 46 calls at .52 and now am allocated 10% COP, 60% XME Sept 33 calls, 30% FCX 13 Aug calls in the Cecil Fielder account.  If USD collapses in the coming months, it will provide a major tailwind to my positions.  A lot of the options positions have potential to increase 5-10x.

The overcrowded USD long trade is falling back to the lower end of the zone and may overshoot

FCX finally broke out the zone.  Hopefully it sticks as time is running short on the Aug 13 calls @ .52
 XME I have adequate time in Sept so a back test of the trendline won't kill the positions.
Have Sept15 33 calls @ .39
 COP July 28 46 @ .52 calls picked up this morning.