Saturday, March 17, 2018

Mar 17 - Long $QQQ

Got into decent size position of $QQQ 175 calls @ .22 expiring Fri and smaller $amzn and $nflx.  Still in $shak and sold off $rig for only 50% gain (mistraded it and didn't react quickly enough).

This is probably 50/50 to pop this week but if it does, we could see 178+ in QQQ
$HYG primed for a move up or down.  Considering seasonality I am thinking up.

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Feb 27 - $shak primed for a big move

Still holding $RIG Mar2 and Mar16 calls which are up 100-200%.  $shak settling nicely and I have plenty of time with Jun 45 calls

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Feb 24 - Recap of choppy week, oil sector looking great

I ended up closing out shorts in both $aapl and $spy on tues morning for 35% loss, $goos shortly after for a scratch and managed to refrain from getting too excited long or short.  I did add $shak Jun 45 calls for a buck and added more $rig calls but otherwise was sitting on my hands.

The pain trade was chop.  Both bulls and bears were engaged and this week served to cause both sides pain if they had major expectations one way or the other.

Think testing that yellow bar near all time highs is very probably at this point

I love the $RIG set up.  Sitting in Mar2 9.5 calls @.15 and a bigger position of Mar16 10 calls @.19.  Looking for 11 by mid March

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Feb 17 - Large short position now

Very bearish now and looking for a retest of lows in 2-3 weeks.  I have puts in SPY, AAPL, GOOS, and GLD.  Calls in RIG

 every major drop except the one in green was met with some chop for a month+
 like this long in $RIG

Monday, February 12, 2018

Feb 12 - Sold 3/4 of SPY calls

Lightened up a lot and went short a small put spread 262/264 expiring Friday.  Looking for a small short if we hit 270 in SPY.  Otherwise will be trading light in the meantime.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Feb 11 - Long SPY

Got long SPY via this week's calls (feb16 259 @ 4.5) when SPY filled the gap Friday.  It ended up going much lower to my surprise but we are well positioned for a bounce this week.  If the bounce materializes, will be looking to sell around 270 and wait and see what happens.  I may put on a small short but depends on price action.  Ideally we chop for a while and establish a base.

Very nice divergence setting up and we could see a big short squeeze

VIX VXV also at levels that indicate we are close to a bottom.  That said, it is very possible and maybe likely that we get a double bottom, i.e. in a week to a month this low gets retested ala 2015 as there has been major technical damage

Friday, August 25, 2017

Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts.

Also have a big position of DITM LVS Nov calls.  I really like this set up.

Strangely enough FANG is setting up well but I'm a bit weary about the bearish seasonality around the corner.

LVS is a fantastic setup.
 Excellent chance we retest ATH in LVS by Nov
 NFLX a more difficult long but expecting support soon
 AMZN looks prime to explode up

Friday, August 4, 2017

Aug 4 - Re-entered GLD short

Jumped back in on the open as it looks like we have a short term trend change.  Annoyed it decided to leave without me but worth the chase as there are 3-5 points more of downside here.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Aug 3 - Cut GLD short, more chop in the indexes

Biggest position now in DAL which I added more to today.  Earnings torpedoed the DDD position and exited URA yesterday after seeing it not breakout and GLD short today (still waiting on this, the yen just won't stop barreling up and it needs to slow down for the GLD trade to work).

Still have small GBT, NTES

I got excited yesterday when GLD poked through the trendline which has been a pretty good indicator of trend change the past several months.  Today it did probably the worst possible thing...nothing.  An ideal top would be a big gap up then a fade or some sort of volatility.
Right now the possible is happening which is making this a risky short.  It looked much better yesterday.

A potential pain trade scenario would be for miners to break out a few days, engaged a lot of longs + cause a stop run on shorts and THEN reverse hard back down.  That would crush a lot of participants.

Longer time frame you can see it speed of the decline isn't there.  Could drop like a rock but odds increased today that this continues to go up.
 Same thing with silver.  It could easy take another leg up.
 GDX also isn't falling hard.  Some minor underperformance relative to gold but not enough to be actionable.
 Maybe GLD hits 123 then reverses?  Will be in wait and see mode
 SLV at resistance but could easy poke a bit through before reversing.
 UUP is due for a violent spike up.  It is coming soon.  Within a few days to a couple weeks I'd say.  At that point, GLD will probably reverse.
 I think a bear trap where we break support and reverse higher is a very possible scenario if we don't bounce here
 Entered modest X long.  Very good risk to reward
 Exited URA yesterday.  Didn't like how it didn';t break out when it was all set up to do so.
 SPY just churning.  Nothing bad or good here.  Just chop.
 My biggest position is DAL now.  At minimum looking for 52 in next 1-2 weeks.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

July 30 - Long URA, DDD, DAL, NTES, MOMO, GBT, CMCM and short GLD

Entered a handful of longs with the proceeds from XME, X, FCX longs.  Friday might have been a decent day to reenter long but I am holding off as there might be more downside.

I am extremely bullish URA, DDD, DAL for next few weeks.

I am also highly leaning towards a market correction of 3-5% in the next 2 mo.  Feel like the probability is 80%+.  A lot of complacency right now with put/call ratios staying in very low ranges.

My goal is to raise cash the next few weeks and hopefully avoid the downturn.

Biggest position is URA long.  It looks almost too good to be true

GLD short and as usual I am very uneasy.  Have been a few days early on a few of these trades.
My proxy GDX looks like it is at resistance.  If GDX breaks up, I will fold this trade.
 GDX right there and will break up or down soon.
 This is a big reason why I like the GLD short.  USD is due to bounce this week.

Big position in DDD now and earnings is Tues.
 Picked up an array of DAL calls and expecting a 2-3 bounce in next few weeks.
mid sized position in NTES, also will be affected by earnings.  Aug 9.
 much smaller position in GBT, earnings Aug 9

Thursday, July 27, 2017

July 27 - Sold FCX yesterday and entered GLD short today

GDX is signalling another move down in GLD but longer term it is setting up for a big move up this fall.  Will enter long GLD/ GDX on a retest of the lower zone if we get there.

FCX I sold yesterday after seeing the weakness in steel names.  Still looking to re-enter but want to see things play out.

Also entered longs in DDD, NTES, URA, GBT w the proceeds of the oversized XME calls.

Mar 17 - Long $QQQ

Got into decent size position of $QQQ 175 calls @ .22 expiring Fri and smaller $amzn and $nflx.  Still in $shak and sold off $rig for only 5...