Friday, August 4, 2017

Aug 4 - Re-entered GLD short

Jumped back in on the open as it looks like we have a short term trend change.  Annoyed it decided to leave without me but worth the chase as there are 3-5 points more of downside here.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Aug 3 - Cut GLD short, more chop in the indexes

Biggest position now in DAL which I added more to today.  Earnings torpedoed the DDD position and exited URA yesterday after seeing it not breakout and GLD short today (still waiting on this, the yen just won't stop barreling up and it needs to slow down for the GLD trade to work).

Still have small GBT, NTES

I got excited yesterday when GLD poked through the trendline which has been a pretty good indicator of trend change the past several months.  Today it did probably the worst possible thing...nothing.  An ideal top would be a big gap up then a fade or some sort of volatility.
Right now the possible is happening which is making this a risky short.  It looked much better yesterday.

A potential pain trade scenario would be for miners to break out a few days, engaged a lot of longs + cause a stop run on shorts and THEN reverse hard back down.  That would crush a lot of participants.

Longer time frame you can see it speed of the decline isn't there.  Could drop like a rock but odds increased today that this continues to go up.
 Same thing with silver.  It could easy take another leg up.
 GDX also isn't falling hard.  Some minor underperformance relative to gold but not enough to be actionable.
 Maybe GLD hits 123 then reverses?  Will be in wait and see mode
 SLV at resistance but could easy poke a bit through before reversing.
 UUP is due for a violent spike up.  It is coming soon.  Within a few days to a couple weeks I'd say.  At that point, GLD will probably reverse.
 I think a bear trap where we break support and reverse higher is a very possible scenario if we don't bounce here
 Entered modest X long.  Very good risk to reward
 Exited URA yesterday.  Didn't like how it didn';t break out when it was all set up to do so.
 SPY just churning.  Nothing bad or good here.  Just chop.
 My biggest position is DAL now.  At minimum looking for 52 in next 1-2 weeks.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

July 30 - Long URA, DDD, DAL, NTES, MOMO, GBT, CMCM and short GLD

Entered a handful of longs with the proceeds from XME, X, FCX longs.  Friday might have been a decent day to reenter long but I am holding off as there might be more downside.

I am extremely bullish URA, DDD, DAL for next few weeks.

I am also highly leaning towards a market correction of 3-5% in the next 2 mo.  Feel like the probability is 80%+.  A lot of complacency right now with put/call ratios staying in very low ranges.

My goal is to raise cash the next few weeks and hopefully avoid the downturn.

Biggest position is URA long.  It looks almost too good to be true

GLD short and as usual I am very uneasy.  Have been a few days early on a few of these trades.
My proxy GDX looks like it is at resistance.  If GDX breaks up, I will fold this trade.
 GDX right there and will break up or down soon.
 This is a big reason why I like the GLD short.  USD is due to bounce this week.

Big position in DDD now and earnings is Tues.
 Picked up an array of DAL calls and expecting a 2-3 bounce in next few weeks.
mid sized position in NTES, also will be affected by earnings.  Aug 9.
 much smaller position in GBT, earnings Aug 9

Thursday, July 27, 2017

July 27 - Sold FCX yesterday and entered GLD short today

GDX is signalling another move down in GLD but longer term it is setting up for a big move up this fall.  Will enter long GLD/ GDX on a retest of the lower zone if we get there.

FCX I sold yesterday after seeing the weakness in steel names.  Still looking to re-enter but want to see things play out.

Also entered longs in DDD, NTES, URA, GBT w the proceeds of the oversized XME calls.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

July 26 - Sold X, XME calls

Still bullish intermediate term but I sold X Sept calls for a double and XME also for a double.  Holding FCX Sept calls (now up 275%) as copper is ripping and has no correlation really to the Trump risk that is part of steel.  Will probably enter NTES calls today as China as a whole is moving really well.  I should've been in some of these names earlier.

I still like FCX and have a target of 17-18

Sold X calls when X was up around 10% this morning

Still have a target of 35-38 on XME but want to see how this weakness in steel is playing out.