Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Apr 25 - Massively long energy, short GLD

Have been building a big position in the Cecil Fielder account in Jun calls in energy.  XOP, MRO, CHK, APA.  About 40% of the account is in slightly ITM calls.

Also have GLD Sept 117 puts at about 20% and the rest spread out between URA Jun calls (which are prob toast), XLF/ XBI calls which are doing well.

Sort of a head and shoulders type pattern here but what I am looking at is the support level which is holding despite oil moving down.  If oil start going up, energy sector should blast to the upside

Major weakness last week in miners and expecting GLD to follow.  Decided for a long term time frame w Sept 117 puts
 URA setup still alive although my calls are down 75%.  Should've bought common instead

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Apr 19 - Looking to re-short GLD at 124

It isn't there yet but hopefully it gets there!

SLV might be an easier short here

Apr 19 - More churn in equities

Movement to the upside isn't happening how I thought but it isn't going down either.  So far the indexes are up for the week.  If and when we break out of the zone, things do seem fatigued so part of me wants to play it cautious into the early summer.

NYA just looks like consolidation.
 VXX short still in place
 Still long XBI also
 Unfortunately missed a good selling point a weak ago in URA.  The set up is still good and my May calls just have to suffer through the theta decay.  We should get a bounce here.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Apr 15 - Rebound likely next week

Was not a good last 2 weeks for the Cecil Fielder account now at 25k after hitting 50k earlier on SNAP.  Lost a string of consecutive trades, SNAP, multiple call positions on AMBA, and 3 failed attempt to short GLD.  Still set up nicely into this week and expect a rebound but the account has been looking more like Rob Deer w/o the home runs than Barry Bonds.

One thing of notice is that fear is prevalent but equities havent' suffered to such a large degree.  

VIX: VXV signalling a bottom within 0-2 days.  In the last 5 years over 18 occurrences only 2 times has this not triggered and those happened on large corrections

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Apr 11 - Went long IP, XBI, and short VXX. Stopped out of GLD short

Right now in order of size, VXX short, URA, XBI, ARNC, IP.  I don't think the market is going to crash here but it might take a few more days for things to settle for the next leg up.  There is way too much chop and late day buying for things to look bearish.  The small caps showed major strength today which is also a plus.

VIX closed deep above its BB for the first time in a while.  I took a stab at VXX puts and we will see whether it was timely
VXX volume close to the reversal zone

 NYA getting closer to a decision point which I believe is up
 URA still moving up
 Took XBI May calls today.  I like the positive divergence on RSI/ MACD
 2 yr chart on XBI
 took a small long in IP.  It looks just like a larger position I have in ARNC
 GLD got me again.  I got stopped out of a second short attempt and am standing aside