Saturday, February 18, 2017

Feb 18 - Long LVS, LN and short GDX

Once again got stopped out of a quick short attempt and probably will pass on shorting and just wait for consolidation/ pullback to go aggressively long into April.   The indexes are insanely strong.

The gaming ETF is consolidating and a solid and sustained move for the rest of the year is lining up
 Took on another short in precious metals.  This time against GDX via a load of ITM Jun puts.  I am looking for 18-20.  It looks like it is making a bull flag but under the hood on smaller time frames it has looked weak and even if it moves up, I think it will run out of gas soon

On the weekly close to the upper BB and being topped out on the stochs.
 LVS looks very interesting and I got Jun calls half in the money

 I don't know what else to say.  From a technical standpoint this is falling within the once every 5-10 years event.  Extremely overbought but the dips are so aggressively bought up I have given up on shorting and will stick to existing positions.  I am eyeing a longer term energy long but XOP/ XLE aren't quite there yet

Friday, February 17, 2017

Feb 17 - Bearish stat on big VIX spikes when SPY is also up

Courtesy of 
When gains 10% or more and finishes positive

Feb 17 - Short SPY target 228

Looking at this as a swing trade through late March.  Seasonality is weak the next couple weeks.  This is the 3rd or 4th time I've tried to short and think this might be it.  Expecting a slow dribble down, not a fast move, just something that lets the high pressure ease so we can launch into another move up in April.  I am very interested in energy names at that point.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Feb 16 - Still waiting to re-short

I caught a little on the short side but the late day ramp ate up most profit and once again closed them out.  I exited GLD/ GDX also as I wasn't impressed by the move considering how much the dollar sold off.  Most of the things I am looking at just don't look interesting, either super overbought but not ready to short (I was too early this week and underestimated the strength of the rally) or not overbought and floating above a buy point which would mean I need to wait.

Are going to have a big correction?  I don't know but I am leaning towards something btw 2-4% max and a very slow consolidation.  Need to see more weakness in the short time frames to short but we might be close.

Things I am eyeing on a pullback are XLE, XOP, CMG, WYNN, GRMN.  Might not be feasible until March.

If GLD/ GDX struggles to go up 1-2% more, I will be interested in shorting them again.

Feb 16 - Re-added IWM short, long GLD, GDX, FXE

This was a very poorly timed week for me but at least things are moving in the right direction.
I got stopped out of AMZN, IBB, IWM shorts twice this week and lost a big chunk of change being overpositioned and 2 days early. This morning I re-added the IWM short.  May add IBB also.

Yesterday I flipped to long GLD, GDX, FXE.  So far helping to recoup some of the damage getting in front of the bull parade too early.

Noticing not quite the movement in miners that I expected but will wait here

GLD moving well

IWM negative divergence set up working

Room to fall in the yellow box and maybe more if this sell off turns into something