Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

IYR and UWM, relatively healthy...

These two look OK for now but still setting up within a wedge and tapping the lower trendline too much. Eventually it will break as in the other indexes.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Potential big move up SPY

Looks like a very ugly bull flag. I dont like how it fell out of the channel last week but the diminishing volume looks promising.
Does seem like the market is waiting for some kind of news.

If the auto bailout occurs and a solid rate cut, we could see a very large move up in the markets.

But if the big move up doesnt happen within the next couple days, the upward pattern will probably fail.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

SKF short

Friday took a stab via Jan puts. Probably the correct play wouldve been Dec but I'm not a big fan of front end options.

Stoch cross nearing, parabolic move up showed a crack, MACD parabolic, signs of bond market easing.

Then if things look right within a week or two will jump back in with some longer term calls if we see this in the low 100's or lower.

On another note, the positions and holding times taken have been getting extremely short. I sometimes unload options positions within the same day if there is a large favorable move. Until the volume slows down, take your profits and run.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Big rally - BKX daily

Shorts and puts buyers got crushed today.
Too many ppl calling for doomsday scenarios at the same time.

Looking for roughly a 3 day move up minimum if you include today. Figuring people chasing today's move will keep this going a couple more days. At least tomorrow.
Holding a few SKF puts and will sell if SKF hits that 120-130 range.

Will be looking for the following as sell signals.
1. maxed out 60 min stochs on UYG/ SPY/ QQQQ/ VIX
2. volume decreasing too much
3. bearish comments from upcoming G20 meeting (which I doubt)
4. 97-98 level in SPY which is max pain
5. most importantly, if price movement just looks tired I close my positions.

Bunch of other things will be looking for but I'm too tired to post them all.

Fri morn: Closed SKF puts near the opening. Volume on the morning rally looked very weak. Today's soggy action is not terrible but not encouraging. I was fully expecting 1 more day of upward movement, perhaps afternoon sees a rally.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Strong bounce possibility in SPY

Very strong possibility of a good bounce here.
this set up appears much more promising than the wedge set up from a day ago.

If it occurs, whether it is a rally or just a bounce within the consolidation zone is another matter.

Multiple reasons for a bounce.

1. convergence of trendline and triple support.
2. v oversold on 60 min time frames
3. angle of selling is steady but not steep and similar to the last move down
4. RSI/ CCI below 20
5. OPEX/ G20 meeting upcoming
6. SPY has just completed CD leg which was equal to AB. Within CD leg, another harmonic AB=CD sequence

If support breaks, stop is set around 81-82. This seems almost too set up to be true so if it fails, I will fold immediately and reassess.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Possible bullish wedge on SPY - 30 min chart

If there is more low volume saucering and a big up move on good volume, SPY could have a solid move up. Would prefer to see one more cycle within the wedge for more confirmation.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

$BKX daily

BKX touched support and also made a 2/3 retrace. Lesser possibility of double bottom. At that point would look for a strong rebound.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

If market stabilizes for next 1-2 weeks, upwards for the intermediate term

Once all the popcorn is popped, I anticipate a very choppy rally.
And filling the gap around 110.

The one thing that makes lean towards we are in a bottoming process is the fact that the bull/ bear battle has not been won by either side. It has only been bloody.

Oct 21 a bullish inverted head and shoulders/ W pattern that failed. Very bearish.

Oct 28 a 2nd retest on lows that failed to break down. V bullish.

Right now, just more choppiness.

The credit situation is easing somewhat so that is definitely a positive factor for the markets. And we know that we are in a recession for sure, it is priced in. Not that I believe recovery is around the corner, there will be forward looking people looking to scoop up from what's left from the carnage.

Going into neutral/ bullish stance...

The market is incredibly whippy right now. And I need a break.

I am pretty neutral now although if we crack the lower level of support in SPY around 84 we will probably crash hard. Conversely if we break above 100-105 we would be in the clear. That's a big range to trade if you are alert. But it will probably be messy.

The 2 reasons are these. One is the heavy volume that is making it hard for shorts or longs to move for more than a couple days. The other is the upcoming election. Seems like the market keeps getting saved right when you think is it going to go under...

If we dont break previous lows, I do think we could form a base here and eventually crawl back up.

But for now I am only going to being playing v short time frames.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

$BPFINA at 0%

There are no bulls.
0% bullish. We had big volume on Friday and the short boat is getting very crowded.
Expect a huge squeeze early in the week.
Or the apocalypse!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Could be a short term bottom based on volume

Volume needs to easily surpass mid Sept and a strong close even if we are down for the day.
Options week coming up also.

Not going in long positions until I see the volume bars huge on all the indexes and a positive looking close.

Click as always on subject title for updated chart.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

$BPFINA - getting ready for a huge move down?

This is a pretty weird pattern on an expanding wedge, but stochs are oversold and XLF still hasnt broken out. If it does break out, then we might get a pretty big rally.Regardless lots of conflicting indicators.

VIX is really high. Almost unsustainable at these levels

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Short EEV?

This sector could see a solid rebound if the g.m. turns around.

RSI, stochs, MACD all maxed out.

Monday, September 15, 2008

VIX 2001, VIX 2002

Yes different time but the 2001 run up in VIX is looking v much like the one we have now. VIX was already running up and the g.m. tanking before the attacks.

2002 less similar but something to think about

VIX 10 yr chart

Something looks strange. I was pretty focused on a 30-35 zone for a VIX top but somehow it looks doubtful that will be the case. We are already at 31. So many other indicators say there is room to fall (UYG far from July bottom, SPY hasnt bottomed out of daily stochs) in addition to unresolved issues at AIG, MER, WM are dragging down the market. GS is tanking which as a market leader is a pretty bad sign.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Maybe the market is not ready to roll over yet

Still intermediate/ long term bearish, but last week was a little bit of a surprise. Lessening divergence btw financials and the general market which near term has pulled me off a bearish stance to a neutral/ bullish one. I'm leaning towards market top in 1-2 weeks. Maybe sooner. But the market could churn for a bit before declaring a top.

A big down day on Friday and financials held v strong. That rise to 1320-1330 in SP500 that I was looking for a few weeks ago might be in the works.

The candles point on $BKX, UYG towards a down day for financials on Tues. We'll see...

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

MOS 6 mo daily

Possible rebound to downward trendline to 115. If it has some energy 130 maybe.
Long term picture looks bleak...

MOS 10 yr chart

I have to admit while it looks ripe for a technical rebound to maybe even 130 levels, I'm staying away short or long. When it gets overbought again I will short the hell out of it.

Sunday, July 27, 2008


Oil support?
The dollar also looking it may be in for a leg down.
Stochs above 80% now.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Rally time?

Paulson for now has pumped up the markets. Lets see what happens tomorrow but for now looks like he has managed to shore up FNM/ FRE temporarily w/o putting any fed money into them. Yet.

So the plan for this wk is as follows. Clean up the small block of SKF /QID remaining Mon if futures still want to bounce up.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

MOS - 6 mo daily

A very nice recovery after cracking that trendline. Like AGU will be careful w this one and prob unload when it appears to consolidate, but I am weary of how it might react to another market downturn. Also the way it corrected so hard early in the cycle is something to keep an eye on.

AGU - 6 mo daily

It pierced its trendline but recovered pretty well.
Printed a hammer and is up 6% as of noon today.

It might consolidate after rising a little based on previous waves, but perhaps it will continue to run up into earnings.

SKF - 6 mo daily

Big question here is where is it going to retrace? If it does.

Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.