Wednesday, September 24, 2008

$BPFINA - getting ready for a huge move down?

This is a pretty weird pattern on an expanding wedge, but stochs are oversold and XLF still hasnt broken out. If it does break out, then we might get a pretty big rally.Regardless lots of conflicting indicators.

VIX is really high. Almost unsustainable at these levels

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Short EEV?

This sector could see a solid rebound if the g.m. turns around.

RSI, stochs, MACD all maxed out.

Monday, September 15, 2008

VIX 2001, VIX 2002

Yes different time but the 2001 run up in VIX is looking v much like the one we have now. VIX was already running up and the g.m. tanking before the attacks.

2002 less similar but something to think about

VIX 10 yr chart

Something looks strange. I was pretty focused on a 30-35 zone for a VIX top but somehow it looks doubtful that will be the case. We are already at 31. So many other indicators say there is room to fall (UYG far from July bottom, SPY hasnt bottomed out of daily stochs) in addition to unresolved issues at AIG, MER, WM are dragging down the market. GS is tanking which as a market leader is a pretty bad sign.

Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.