Sunday, November 23, 2008

SKF short

Friday took a stab via Jan puts. Probably the correct play wouldve been Dec but I'm not a big fan of front end options.

Stoch cross nearing, parabolic move up showed a crack, MACD parabolic, signs of bond market easing.

Then if things look right within a week or two will jump back in with some longer term calls if we see this in the low 100's or lower.

On another note, the positions and holding times taken have been getting extremely short. I sometimes unload options positions within the same day if there is a large favorable move. Until the volume slows down, take your profits and run.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Big rally - BKX daily

Shorts and puts buyers got crushed today.
Too many ppl calling for doomsday scenarios at the same time.

Looking for roughly a 3 day move up minimum if you include today. Figuring people chasing today's move will keep this going a couple more days. At least tomorrow.
Holding a few SKF puts and will sell if SKF hits that 120-130 range.

Will be looking for the following as sell signals.
1. maxed out 60 min stochs on UYG/ SPY/ QQQQ/ VIX
2. volume decreasing too much
3. bearish comments from upcoming G20 meeting (which I doubt)
4. 97-98 level in SPY which is max pain
5. most importantly, if price movement just looks tired I close my positions.

Bunch of other things will be looking for but I'm too tired to post them all.

Fri morn: Closed SKF puts near the opening. Volume on the morning rally looked very weak. Today's soggy action is not terrible but not encouraging. I was fully expecting 1 more day of upward movement, perhaps afternoon sees a rally.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Strong bounce possibility in SPY

Very strong possibility of a good bounce here.
this set up appears much more promising than the wedge set up from a day ago.

If it occurs, whether it is a rally or just a bounce within the consolidation zone is another matter.

Multiple reasons for a bounce.

1. convergence of trendline and triple support.
2. v oversold on 60 min time frames
3. angle of selling is steady but not steep and similar to the last move down
4. RSI/ CCI below 20
5. OPEX/ G20 meeting upcoming
6. SPY has just completed CD leg which was equal to AB. Within CD leg, another harmonic AB=CD sequence

If support breaks, stop is set around 81-82. This seems almost too set up to be true so if it fails, I will fold immediately and reassess.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Possible bullish wedge on SPY - 30 min chart

If there is more low volume saucering and a big up move on good volume, SPY could have a solid move up. Would prefer to see one more cycle within the wedge for more confirmation.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

$BKX daily

BKX touched support and also made a 2/3 retrace. Lesser possibility of double bottom. At that point would look for a strong rebound.

Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.