Thursday, November 13, 2008

Big rally - BKX daily

Shorts and puts buyers got crushed today.
Too many ppl calling for doomsday scenarios at the same time.

Looking for roughly a 3 day move up minimum if you include today. Figuring people chasing today's move will keep this going a couple more days. At least tomorrow.
Holding a few SKF puts and will sell if SKF hits that 120-130 range.

Will be looking for the following as sell signals.
1. maxed out 60 min stochs on UYG/ SPY/ QQQQ/ VIX
2. volume decreasing too much
3. bearish comments from upcoming G20 meeting (which I doubt)
4. 97-98 level in SPY which is max pain
5. most importantly, if price movement just looks tired I close my positions.

Bunch of other things will be looking for but I'm too tired to post them all.

Fri morn: Closed SKF puts near the opening. Volume on the morning rally looked very weak. Today's soggy action is not terrible but not encouraging. I was fully expecting 1 more day of upward movement, perhaps afternoon sees a rally.

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Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.