Saturday, August 30, 2008

Maybe the market is not ready to roll over yet


Still intermediate/ long term bearish, but last week was a little bit of a surprise. Lessening divergence btw financials and the general market which near term has pulled me off a bearish stance to a neutral/ bullish one. I'm leaning towards market top in 1-2 weeks. Maybe sooner. But the market could churn for a bit before declaring a top.

A big down day on Friday and financials held v strong. That rise to 1320-1330 in SP500 that I was looking for a few weeks ago might be in the works.

The candles point on $BKX, UYG towards a down day for financials on Tues. We'll see...

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

MOS 6 mo daily


Possible rebound to downward trendline to 115. If it has some energy 130 maybe.
Long term picture looks bleak...

MOS 10 yr chart


I have to admit while it looks ripe for a technical rebound to maybe even 130 levels, I'm staying away short or long. When it gets overbought again I will short the hell out of it.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...