Friday, October 2, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The McClellan oscillator is turning up again but CCI has not bottomed, which leaves a mildly bullish outlook. however, volume has been very weak the last 2 days, making the possibility of another move down possible.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
My apologies for the terrible image, but I just separated my swing trading and day trading by getting a proper account for daytrading and thought I would post a modified screen shot.
The image is a 1 min chart of today's triple move up in AIG. After consolidating nicely it makes a great move at 10:37 and 10:51 w solid volume. I always try never to step onto quickly moving trains and wait for them to slow down. This allows one to set a very obvious stop if things turn the wrong way.
I am always on the lookout for new daytrading vehicles that set up well so if you know of any, please let me know...
Monday, July 20, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
We still got a H + S pattern albeit a very unusual one. For lack of a better word, a 'bowtie'.
We are potentially mirroring the move up, just in reverse with a broadening wedge pattern. Whereas the activity from May was a tightening wedge and the head being the failed breakout pattern.
Although the levels are all over the place, conceptually this is a pretty complete pattern. IWM, SPY, DIA, and even QQQQ to a certain extent exhibiting bowties.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
Looking for a small low volume bounce early next week. But only 2-3 pts max.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Red lines correspond to the VIX reversal set up.
VIX moved down out of overbought territory on RSI, CCI, and 5,3,3 stochs.
MACD is extremely high.
It is still well embedded in 12,3,3 stoch are so VIX will have some room to move down
if it decides to.
Today may have been a short term bear trap. We will see tomorrow...
VIX printed a black exhaustion canlde today. Breadth was mixed and volume not entirely strong and the close while not great, looked promising.
On the indexes lots of reversal candles.
Looking for SPY to get to the upper end of its consolidation range at around 92-93 and assessing whether to go short.
Right now sitting on modest long position for short term. If we get a large pop tomorrow, will definitely unload a large portion if not all of it. If we gap down again, this set up will probably have failed but the odds of a third gap down in a row seem more limited as the market held some ground today.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Daily and 60 min stochs on both 5,3,3 and 12,3,3 settings
Oversold. Stoch cross on the 5,3, 3 setting on daily for XLE
Lots of bears might be sitting in a boat that could be too crowded
Based on the staggered selloff recently.
Other indexes exhbiting stoch cross on daily.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Monday, June 1, 2009
Despite some distribution 1-2 weeks ago, again it is surprisingly looking very possible we see another big move up in financials. Many of the index ETF's, DIA, SPY, IWM have been consolidating in a very suspicious manner.
But XLF looks very much like the last few breakouts. WFC and BAC of the bunch are especially primed. More so WFC.
Since Thursday, have been sitting on FAS.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Was the leading in money outflows in WSJ selling on strength today. Strong MACD neg divergence and very big selling volume at close. Keep in mind that like most of the posts, this is a short term potential play.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The fast line printed a red line today. This indicator tends to lag at least a few days but is fairly reliable of marking an intermediate trend. What it doesn't do too well is give one an idea of how long or fast a trend will go so it is something I use just as reference.
When the lines cross, that produces the second level of confirmation.
That having been said, I did close out my RIMM puts and sell my TWM on the large move today. Will look to reload at a better price but does appear a correction of at least a few weeks is on its way.
Financials and energy also look to be correcting/ consolidating for the intermediate term soon.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
There is something a bit fishy about this latest 3 day downturn. It seems v forced. Repeated gap downs but no follow through.
Not unlike the series from apr 3-8. A slow ugly grind down but without forceful volume or direction.
Currently price is approaching the right tip of diamond pattern.
Diminishing volume and CMF is increasing while price stays sideways. It looks like accumulation.
thurs apr 30. Failed breakout today. Instead gapped up and reversed mid day on solid volume. Very well could have been a fakeout and the pattern may fail
Monday, April 27, 2009
While VIX is undoubtedly less useful than it was a year ago, the region it is now on the weekly and daily merit attention. Strong positive divergence over last few months on the daily.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Still in an upchannel/ wedge/ whatever you want to call it as it broke a key level of resistance. A level more than few bears expected to hold. It did on the first push up but broke today on solid volume. Volume is still consistent so very easily could be a channel.
On a general note, there are way too many people thinking we are at a top. I can't remember a time when we have topped without people, including myself, being surprised at one last up move in the markets before an intermediate term correction began.
I am not ready to jump on the bear wagon yet. Right when the mixed breadth starts to look like it will turn negative, another sector comes up a picks up the slack. Financials took a breather today but transports/ utilities were strong. In general, there is too much solid volume to be aggressively short here, and actually if XLF hits the lower trendline on non-threatening volume, for a high-risk, but high-reward play, there might be another breakout coming to the 12-12.5 region in XLF.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Not saying this with huge confidence, but perhaps a bit more upside in SPY, really only 1 or 1.5 days more then a breakdown out of this wedge or at least to the lower part of this potential upwrad channel. Also possible we fall right away, but I wasn't entirely convinced it was pushing down v hard today. Mixed breadth today, transports and energy didn't sell off too hard.
Note the angle of some of the indicators...more of a gentle drift down if you look as the last 3 days as a whole...despite the strong downward bent of today.
thurs 635 am PST: Sold all longs, SPY calls and TNA in premarket and open.
Will maybe look for a short entry tomorrow.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
I have been eyeing this potential breakout for weeks. Right when I was almost giving up on this consolidation pattern breaking out, it exploded. I was waiting for $BKX and $DJUSFN to test the bottom end of its trendline to pick up some calls. I just watched this massive move up in price/ volume today on the sidelines...dumbfounded.
It never got to the bottom trendline. Got too fancy for my own good....bleh
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Still havent broken out.
$BKX printed a noncomittal candle and it also did not go up too much considering how much the indexes went up. Not super encouraging.
Now the question is we see a breakout. Based on its current zone, it needs to break out tomorrow or it will drop deeper into the box.
Given that there are black exhaustion candles in XLF, UYG, etc. it might be a tall order.
On indexes, v good volume but signs of exhaustion towards the close so breadth wise, positive but the level of strength varies across the board. IYT for example had a v big day today.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
IYT amongst many other ETF's isn't rolling over like it normally does. And it is accompanied by some extremely large volume.
If it was still going up and vol was dying I would be v bearish.But instead it is giving up marginal ground on dying volume.
It could always fail but it looks like a good setup. $BKX looks promising also as a potential inverse head and shoulders. But the key thing is some excuse for the institutional players to buy. No M2M repeal, temporary or otherwise and back to the drawing board.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
If we dip again into that yellow zone, I am going to go in deep short if the rest of my indicators look good. That trendline is gonna snap sooner or later.
Like many, I am puzzled. Daneric has some possible explanations. I am in Option 1, but fearful of Option 2, which would also make for worse trading as it is scary to be short at these levels and kill my Mar SKF puts.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.co ... arket.html
Whats puzzling is the VIX and put/call ratio have remained somewhat "ambivalent" at best since the SPX was sliding at around 780 SPX. The VIX has always spiked higher on Minor Wave 3's as compared to wave 1's. Also the CPC has always gotten put heavy consistently near the bottoms. But since near the low of wave 1(5) in January this has started to diverge. Are traders getting smarter? Hard to say that since the market keeps dropping and they keep betting rally.
In fact, the entire bear market, significant lows at many degrees the VIX and CPC have always spiked near or at the bottom together to combine for near term lows in each respective indicator.
So in conclusion I can only come up with a few logical answers:
1. Traders figure the bottom HAS to be near. Possible outcome: They prove to be correct and everyone makes big money (Is that even possible?)
2. Traders are in for a big surprise if/when the market just keeps dropping through the 600's possible high 500's. Outcome: They keep losing big. Eventually they get doubtful and fearful again in the right doses.
3. Traders have started to pay attention to Elliott Wave Theory. Possible Outcome: The waves will just keep stretching lower until Traders get "stupid" again.
Its scary. I think everyone would prefer a capitulation move. This slow bleed has me worried. The market is always right.
Key will be the amount of market excitement in M2M meeting Mar 12 as financials are extremely oversold. Question is what happens at the resistance zone of around 135-150 in $DJUSFN indicated if the market can take it there.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
The 800 level in SP500 is being defended fiercely.
Thinking now the heavy selling scenario described on Thursday is now on hold but still leaning towards it playing out since we haven't seen a broad-based capitulation yet. I would call last week a 'soft capitulation' since it only involved the financials.
In this TRIN chart which needs some indicator recalibration points towards some bounce over the next week. Green lines indicate bounce points.
Got into decent size position of $QQQ 175 calls @ .22 expiring Fri and smaller $amzn and $nflx. Still in $shak and sold off $rig for only 5...
I am liking the set up for XLE a lot now and XBI I am hoping for some settling so I can board the train. Maybe within 1-2 weeks? Missed ...
Didn't make any changes Fri except close the GLD short as the miners + silver started showing strength and an oversold signal on the 2 h...