Saturday, January 24, 2009

$TRIN bullish daily chart

Seems like betting on significant downside has increased risk now that the market has not rolled over. Pulled the plug on my puts Friday since the downside didnt appear to be developing.
The 800 level in SP500 is being defended fiercely.
Thinking now the heavy selling scenario described on Thursday is now on hold but still leaning towards it playing out since we haven't seen a broad-based capitulation yet. I would call last week a 'soft capitulation' since it only involved the financials.

In this TRIN chart which needs some indicator recalibration points towards some bounce over the next week. Green lines indicate bounce points.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

$NYMO daily 6 mo chart

Also points at an intermediate term top. If not we are probably only 1 more small, week or 2 long cycle away.

Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.