Saturday, January 24, 2009

$TRIN bullish daily chart

Seems like betting on significant downside has increased risk now that the market has not rolled over. Pulled the plug on my puts Friday since the downside didnt appear to be developing.
The 800 level in SP500 is being defended fiercely.
Thinking now the heavy selling scenario described on Thursday is now on hold but still leaning towards it playing out since we haven't seen a broad-based capitulation yet. I would call last week a 'soft capitulation' since it only involved the financials.

In this TRIN chart which needs some indicator recalibration points towards some bounce over the next week. Green lines indicate bounce points.

Feb 27 - $shak primed for a big move

Still holding $RIG Mar2 and Mar16 calls which are up 100-200%.  $shak settling nicely and I have plenty of time with Jun 45 calls