Tuesday, April 28, 2009

SPY continuation diamond pattern

There is something a bit fishy about this latest 3 day downturn. It seems v forced. Repeated gap downs but no follow through.
Not unlike the series from apr 3-8. A slow ugly grind down but without forceful volume or direction.

Currently price is approaching the right tip of diamond pattern.

Potential XLE breakout


Diminishing volume and CMF is increasing while price stays sideways. It looks like accumulation.

thurs apr 30. Failed breakout today. Instead gapped up and reversed mid day on solid volume. Very well could have been a fakeout and the pattern may fail

Monday, April 27, 2009


While VIX is undoubtedly less useful than it was a year ago, the region it is now on the weekly and daily merit attention. Strong positive divergence over last few months on the daily.



Thursday, April 16, 2009

Nasdaq not dead yet

Still in an upchannel/ wedge/ whatever you want to call it as it broke a key level of resistance. A level more than few bears expected to hold. It did on the first push up but broke today on solid volume. Volume is still consistent so very easily could be a channel.

On a general note, there are way too many people thinking we are at a top. I can't remember a time when we have topped without people, including myself, being surprised at one last up move in the markets before an intermediate term correction began.


Another potential move up in financials?

I am not ready to jump on the bear wagon yet. Right when the mixed breadth starts to look like it will turn negative, another sector comes up a picks up the slack. Financials took a breather today but transports/ utilities were strong. In general, there is too much solid volume to be aggressively short here, and actually if XLF hits the lower trendline on non-threatening volume, for a high-risk, but high-reward play, there might be another breakout coming to the 12-12.5 region in XLF.


Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Maybe a lil bit left of upside in SPY?

Not saying this with huge confidence, but perhaps a bit more upside in SPY, really only 1 or 1.5 days more then a breakdown out of this wedge or at least to the lower part of this potential upwrad channel. Also possible we fall right away, but I wasn't entirely convinced it was pushing down v hard today. Mixed breadth today, transports and energy didn't sell off too hard.
Note the angle of some of the indicators...more of a gentle drift down if you look as the last 3 days as a whole...despite the strong downward bent of today.


thurs 635 am PST: Sold all longs, SPY calls and TNA in premarket and open.
Will maybe look for a short entry tomorrow.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Massive BAC/ financials breakout

I have been eyeing this potential breakout for weeks. Right when I was almost giving up on this consolidation pattern breaking out, it exploded. I was waiting for $BKX and $DJUSFN to test the bottom end of its trendline to pick up some calls. I just watched this massive move up in price/ volume today on the sidelines...dumbfounded.

It never got to the bottom trendline. Got too fancy for my own good....bleh

Thursday, April 2, 2009

$BKX daily chart - no breakout yet

Still havent broken out.
$BKX printed a noncomittal candle and it also did not go up too much considering how much the indexes went up. Not super encouraging.

Now the question is we see a breakout. Based on its current zone, it needs to break out tomorrow or it will drop deeper into the box.

Given that there are black exhaustion candles in XLF, UYG, etc. it might be a tall order.

On indexes, v good volume but signs of exhaustion towards the close so breadth wise, positive but the level of strength varies across the board. IYT for example had a v big day today.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

IYT daily chart - Don't fall in love with the downside


IYT amongst many other ETF's isn't rolling over like it normally does. And it is accompanied by some extremely large volume.

Potential v large move up in financials

This looks like a great set up to me going long.BAC could potentially hit 12 if it breaks w volume.Note the consistently downtrending volume past 2 wks.
If it was still going up and vol was dying I would be v bearish.But instead it is giving up marginal ground on dying volume.
It could always fail but it looks like a good setup. $BKX looks promising also as a potential inverse head and shoulders. But the key thing is some excuse for the institutional players to buy. No M2M repeal, temporary or otherwise and back to the drawing board.

Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.