Sunday, March 8, 2009
If we dip again into that yellow zone, I am going to go in deep short if the rest of my indicators look good. That trendline is gonna snap sooner or later.
Like many, I am puzzled. Daneric has some possible explanations. I am in Option 1, but fearful of Option 2, which would also make for worse trading as it is scary to be short at these levels and kill my Mar SKF puts.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.co ... arket.html
Whats puzzling is the VIX and put/call ratio have remained somewhat "ambivalent" at best since the SPX was sliding at around 780 SPX. The VIX has always spiked higher on Minor Wave 3's as compared to wave 1's. Also the CPC has always gotten put heavy consistently near the bottoms. But since near the low of wave 1(5) in January this has started to diverge. Are traders getting smarter? Hard to say that since the market keeps dropping and they keep betting rally.
In fact, the entire bear market, significant lows at many degrees the VIX and CPC have always spiked near or at the bottom together to combine for near term lows in each respective indicator.
So in conclusion I can only come up with a few logical answers:
1. Traders figure the bottom HAS to be near. Possible outcome: They prove to be correct and everyone makes big money (Is that even possible?)
2. Traders are in for a big surprise if/when the market just keeps dropping through the 600's possible high 500's. Outcome: They keep losing big. Eventually they get doubtful and fearful again in the right doses.
3. Traders have started to pay attention to Elliott Wave Theory. Possible Outcome: The waves will just keep stretching lower until Traders get "stupid" again.
Its scary. I think everyone would prefer a capitulation move. This slow bleed has me worried. The market is always right.
Key will be the amount of market excitement in M2M meeting Mar 12 as financials are extremely oversold. Question is what happens at the resistance zone of around 135-150 in $DJUSFN indicated if the market can take it there.