Monday, July 20, 2009

Potential $TRAN short

This one looks v clean. Stop would be very obvious so this would be an easy fold if things didnt bounce down off resistance and blasted through the upper trendline.$TRAN& ... =162114236

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Possible H + S pattern

We still got a H + S pattern albeit a very unusual one. For lack of a better word, a 'bowtie'.
We are potentially mirroring the move up, just in reverse with a broadening wedge pattern. Whereas the activity from May was a tightening wedge and the head being the failed breakout pattern.

Although the levels are all over the place, conceptually this is a pretty complete pattern. IWM, SPY, DIA, and even QQQQ to a certain extent exhibiting bowties.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Potential move to 920-925 in SP500

That would form a second right shoulder and provide more symmetry to the whole pattern which was lacking before. At that point, the 5,3,3 stochs should be maxed out on the daily making things moderately overbought in the intermediate term.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Potential USO bounce

CCI, stochs, RSI oversold similar to previous bounce conditions.
Also sitting on trendline.

Potential SPY bounce

Looking for a small low volume bounce early next week. But only 2-3 pts max.

Monday, July 6, 2009

VIX 60 min chart$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p01872450984&listNum=1&a=140941991

Red lines correspond to the VIX reversal set up.
VIX moved down out of overbought territory on RSI, CCI, and 5,3,3 stochs.
MACD is extremely high.
It is still well embedded in 12,3,3 stoch are so VIX will have some room to move down
if it decides to.

Today may have been a short term bear trap. We will see tomorrow...

Potential VIX reversal

VIX printed a black exhaustion canlde today. Breadth was mixed and volume not entirely strong and the close while not great, looked promising.

On the indexes lots of reversal candles.

Looking for SPY to get to the upper end of its consolidation range at around 92-93 and assessing whether to go short.

Right now sitting on modest long position for short term. If we get a large pop tomorrow, will definitely unload a large portion if not all of it. If we gap down again, this set up will probably have failed but the odds of a third gap down in a row seem more limited as the market held some ground today.$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73247900273&listNum=1&a=143752913

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...