Friday, December 28, 2012

long XIV

In at 14.67 40 percent position in XIV. If an agreement is reached ee coild see massive squeeze. Most feel deal will not be reached. This is a v high risk trade

Thursday, November 29, 2012

sold all UCO at 27.94 for 4.4% gain

v strong open and breadth. Sold off all UCO on big gap up. Generally if trading in range and get a reversal candle set up i sell within a day or two. Anyhow now flat again.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

stopped out at 56.5 SDS

promising open where I could have taken advantage of the nice drop but let things roll. and saw Profits get vaporized. Took large position of UCO at 26.76 based on todays dip and hollow candle. Still looking for short entry but am neutral for now

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Flat

sold off DGP for minus 1% pre and VXX for 2% gain pre. Took quick day trade w SSO and sold off late morning. Im very conflicted on market direction. Intermediate term is down but still feel like a bounce is lurking. We are at long entry point on daily SPY and NYMO chart yet the 60 min timeframe for VIX looks like we have a big downdraft possible. I dont like flipping coins so I will wait.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Bounce OPEX week?

We are very oversold but im not betting big on bounces. SsO position ws stopped out at -1%. Only to see SPY zoom up to almost 1% then settle at even. DGP position was held over weekend and may add this week

Thursday, November 8, 2012

sold QID for 7.5% gain at close

closed QID and picked up DGP and some SSO for possible bounce Tomorrow. that the SSO position will be closed tomrrow. highly likely. Volume eased up a bit and stretched beyond bollingers. DGP may be held through weekend

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

sold VXX for 6% gain

Expecting a bounce tomorrow but might not happen. Still holding most of QID which is up4%. Volume was very strong today. I would be surprised not to see another big down day within a week

short via VXX and QID

closed out my feb VXX puts yesterday as ive been basically only slightly long recently. Bought QID at close yesterday and VXX in premarket.the charts look very ugly although at some point there will be a big squeezeB
Closed last longs at close. Picked up QID afterhours and smaller share of VXX pre today. Charts look ugly but still that big short dqueeze is lurking

Saturday, October 20, 2012

IYT continuing short

IYT issued confirmation of sell signal Friday. Still holding sizeable short. CCI and stochs rolling down out of overbought zone. Sitting on 1.5% gain so far on IYT short and 25% on small batch fo Dec 22 puts 91 bought Thursday at close.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Unclear market

closed longs on big gap up. Reloaded much smaller SSO position at close. Not looking very bullish trend wise though

long SSO and short VXX

maxed out on 60 Min timeframe for CCI and stochs. Not looking to hold long. Intermediate term trend is in doubt

Monday, October 8, 2012

Closed shorts in morning for 2% gain

closed SDS VXX for quick gain. I wasnt impressed w volume and how things held early and sold off by midday. Looking for move back up but things look raggedly for potential to change intermediate term

Friday, October 5, 2012

long VXX and SDS

went net short at close. Printed reversal candle near top of bollinger and VIX testing the low end of range. Im looking for more froth and eventual pullback in month or two. Maybe earlier. dow leading and QQQ lagging is not a good sign.

Friday, September 21, 2012

more consolidation for next move up

today was a little ragged but decent recovery. Looking for bullish move up. The spy 145 cLls got crushed and recovered to 1.68

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

bullish consolidation in SPY

i rarely look at options close to expiry but i just picked up small batch of sept 28 145 calls at 2.1. potential to get wiped out but i think it is much more likely sSPY is up a handle by expiration

Closed another 25% of USO short

another 3% drop in USO. We might get more downside but 6% Drop in three days. Otherwise indexes once again very quiet.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

closed half of USO short

again fairly bullish low vol low volatilty consolidation. Although i would like to get more juice on USO short the general strength in indexes makes me cautious. GLD bounced nicely today and i recovered most of the losses from yesterday. I wouldnt mind seeing a few more days of consolidation to set up a strong base moving forward.

Monday, September 17, 2012

USO down almost 3%

We got the start of our pullback. Commodities pulled back and a solid drop in USO on big volume. Made the incorrect decision not to take partial profits on GLD calls which cost me a bit today. Otherwise the pullback across indexes was minor and on low volume. A low volume consolidation for a few days would be bullish

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Short term pullback is in order

Shorted USO at close as it printed black reversal candle outside bollinger. We are really overbought on short term. That having been said trend is firmly up. Big volume has come in recently on the major indexes and making multi year highs. The pullback i believe will be short or more of consolidation. Still sitting on GLD via nov 155 calls which in theory could retest previous highs.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Potential SPY long

Went long around 1030 am after seeing spikes up on 5 min chart. I am pretty bullish going into pre Bernanke speech and pre holiday week. Also we have burned off a piece of the overbought conditions which should enable SPY to retest previous highs around 143

Bounce possible soon

Exited shorts at close yesterday as we are oversold on 60 min stochs on SPY and VIX. Vol has not increased on this down move so i am leaning towards a bullish last week of month. As we have been in uptrend for some time im also leaning towards a push of buyers on this first intermediate term pullback.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Potential Short SPY

Went short midday after seeing sizeable vol spikes on down moves. Stochs are maxed out on daily as they have been for some time. VIX finally made sizeable move in some time. Of notice was vol spike in QQQ. Could be start of breather for few days. Looking for 138 139 in SPY and will reassess if and when it gets there

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Buy signal in NYMO

Friday posted trend reversal day. Overall picture looks bullish but the slip outside of trendline on Thursday and not impressive volume is reason for caution. Also somewhat bearish is the failure of SPY to hit the upper trendline on its recent bounce up. Not enough to go short but something to keep in mind if the market falls short of hitting the upper trendline again. Sitting long but will be keenly eyeing breadth and overall market strength. Positive divergence was seen prior to this move up as seen in 60 min chart.

Friday, June 29, 2012

BLAST OFF!

Euro decision causes massive short squeeze. Close above critical thresholds and trendlines. Very overbought on 60 min timeframe so very short term pullback is possible. In small short position, seeking to go long again. Intermediate trend is now up.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Trapped between 131-133 in SPY

VIX printed black exhaustion candle and big early morning drop was mostly recovered. So still with slight bias to upside. With expectations very low for euro resolution, any news could push things up a lot. Now trapped in narrow range and a close out of the zone will probably indicate much more strength in that direction.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

IWM potential long

Since early June low, increasing volume going up, decreasing vol going down. Break upward out of channel could mean a solid move. Overhead resistance in yellow

SPY LONG TO POTENTIALLY MID JULY

Yellow zone is resistance where there is confluence of 50% retracement and trendline. If it clears this zone, could go significantly higher. Eurozone crisis may be already priced in to a large degree in the market.

Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts. Also ha...