Friday, December 28, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
promising open where I could have taken advantage of the nice drop but let things roll. and saw Profits get vaporized. Took large position of UCO at 26.76 based on todays dip and hollow candle. Still looking for short entry but am neutral for now
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
sold off DGP for minus 1% pre and VXX for 2% gain pre. Took quick day trade w SSO and sold off late morning. Im very conflicted on market direction. Intermediate term is down but still feel like a bounce is lurking. We are at long entry point on daily SPY and NYMO chart yet the 60 min timeframe for VIX looks like we have a big downdraft possible. I dont like flipping coins so I will wait.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Saturday, October 20, 2012
IYT issued confirmation of sell signal Friday. Still holding sizeable short. CCI and stochs rolling down out of overbought zone. Sitting on 1.5% gain so far on IYT short and 25% on small batch fo Dec 22 puts 91 bought Thursday at close.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Monday, October 8, 2012
Friday, October 5, 2012
Friday, September 21, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
again fairly bullish low vol low volatilty consolidation. Although i would like to get more juice on USO short the general strength in indexes makes me cautious. GLD bounced nicely today and i recovered most of the losses from yesterday. I wouldnt mind seeing a few more days of consolidation to set up a strong base moving forward.
Monday, September 17, 2012
We got the start of our pullback. Commodities pulled back and a solid drop in USO on big volume. Made the incorrect decision not to take partial profits on GLD calls which cost me a bit today. Otherwise the pullback across indexes was minor and on low volume. A low volume consolidation for a few days would be bullish
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Shorted USO at close as it printed black reversal candle outside bollinger. We are really overbought on short term. That having been said trend is firmly up. Big volume has come in recently on the major indexes and making multi year highs. The pullback i believe will be short or more of consolidation. Still sitting on GLD via nov 155 calls which in theory could retest previous highs.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Went long around 1030 am after seeing spikes up on 5 min chart. I am pretty bullish going into pre Bernanke speech and pre holiday week. Also we have burned off a piece of the overbought conditions which should enable SPY to retest previous highs around 143
Exited shorts at close yesterday as we are oversold on 60 min stochs on SPY and VIX. Vol has not increased on this down move so i am leaning towards a bullish last week of month. As we have been in uptrend for some time im also leaning towards a push of buyers on this first intermediate term pullback.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Went short midday after seeing sizeable vol spikes on down moves. Stochs are maxed out on daily as they have been for some time. VIX finally made sizeable move in some time. Of notice was vol spike in QQQ. Could be start of breather for few days. Looking for 138 139 in SPY and will reassess if and when it gets there
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Friday posted trend reversal day. Overall picture looks bullish but the slip outside of trendline on Thursday and not impressive volume is reason for caution. Also somewhat bearish is the failure of SPY to hit the upper trendline on its recent bounce up. Not enough to go short but something to keep in mind if the market falls short of hitting the upper trendline again. Sitting long but will be keenly eyeing breadth and overall market strength. Positive divergence was seen prior to this move up as seen in 60 min chart.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Euro decision causes massive short squeeze. Close above critical thresholds and trendlines. Very overbought on 60 min timeframe so very short term pullback is possible. In small short position, seeking to go long again. Intermediate trend is now up.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
VIX printed black exhaustion candle and big early morning drop was mostly recovered. So still with slight bias to upside. With expectations very low for euro resolution, any news could push things up a lot. Now trapped in narrow range and a close out of the zone will probably indicate much more strength in that direction.