Today was an interesting day. Some parts were very tranquil like DIA and others like QQQ/ IWM had major distribution.
DIA continued its picture perfect consolidation pattern and even broke through upper wedge resistance.
SPY ended up fairly even and barely bounced after issuing a buy signal on the 30 min CCI and stochs. It was not encouraging to see such a soggy bounce.
IWM/ QQQ had fairly bad days. My QQQ long got stopped out at 98.9 on a pretty violent down move.
Right now, I'm still thinking more downward dribble until the 2pm Weds announcement. The market definitely seems to making very weak attempts to rebound, even on good long setups on the 30, 60 min timeframes. I was so unconvinced I sold my SPY longs at EOD. The long setups about half of them (SPY, DIA) have burned off their oversold condition so now its possible they can go back down. Others IWM QQQ are about to issue CCI buy signals but I am wary and not interested in taking a position, long or short, at the moment.
On a bullish note, my gut feeling is that the FOMC announcement will be sort of a non-announcement. Yellen will probably announce that future action will be heavily dependent on economic data and avoid coming up with hard time frames to avoid creating anxiety in the market. That having been said, everyone knows that the large scale purchases will end sometime next year and a lot of that is already reflected in the recent increase in long-term Treasury rates. More than anything, the fear of the unknown occurring, i.e. bad news, being pulled off the table could be constituted as bullish news.
Still holding $RIG Mar2 and Mar16 calls which are up 100-200%. $shak settling nicely and I have plenty of time with Jun 45 calls
I am liking the set up for XLE a lot now and XBI I am hoping for some settling so I can board the train. Maybe within 1-2 weeks? Missed ...
Didn't make any changes Fri except close the GLD short as the miners + silver started showing strength and an oversold signal on the 2 h...