Monday, October 13, 2014

Oct 13 - 3 down days in a row

Unexpected but not totally surprising downside at EOD when it looked things would stabilize for a day.  It seemed too many people were expecting the 200MA (myself included) to give a strong bounce which in a way was its demise.  After today, the question is how much technical damage has been done and when we bounce, what kind of bounce will happen.  As of now, looking for a 50%-62% retracement from whereever the low occurs and further downside.  Alternative options are tests of new highs or retests of broken support and going back down.  VIX continues to go parabolic meaning at some point there will be a snapback but it could be only for the short term.

As before, waiting for some churn and lower volume before putting on intermediate longs.  Until then, we could just be seeing short squeeze spikes with limited long term intentions.

No comments:

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...