Thursday, October 23, 2014

Oct 23 - Still waiting for consolidation/ pullback

Once again, shorts get squeezed on the open.  We might get a retrace tomorrow based on reversal candles, 2nd day of afternoon weakness, and decent negative divergence.  We have sell signals on 30/60 frames but they have failed twice on this strong upmove.  With more fray the last 2 days, we might see a confirmation on the third signal.

If we bounce at 192.2 SPY and consolidate that would be very bullish going forward.  A break of it could mean a move lower.  If there is a down day with low volume and lack of speed, I will be interpreting that as a bullish situation.

Still a chance of going back down to retest lows, but today's gap up made that more remote.  Last night, we saw a massive squeeze in futures.  It was obvious that someone wants this market going up for now.

As of now, a slight edge to the bears tomorrow but the easier trade will be to go long on oversold timeframes if the drop is not heavy.

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...