Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Nov 12 - Melt up continues, is GLD basing for a move up or consolidation for move down?

Today exhibited very bullish behavior although gains were small and SPY was slightly red.  IWM and QQQ led today making this a risk-on day.  QQQ in particular looks primed for a strong move up as it has been consolidating for a week.  SPY issued a hollow reversal candle combined with a black VIX which is pretty bullish.  The yellow areas in the SPY chart show that every day in the last 6 mo we have seen next day upside.

GLD continues to bounce within a zone and has the potential to have a decent bounce especially with Yellen speaking tomorrow.  The bad news of QE is already out but if there is hint of interest rate rises being delayed, the bears could find the need to hit the exits quickly.  Generally speaking, I am still inclined to see a bounce rather than a move down from here because it seems there are still too much bearishness in the public and within the last week, a lack of conviction pushing prices down further.  That having been said, it only takes one big down day to set things in motion for the intermediate term.

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Jun 19 - Set up of the year in financials

I am heavily long calls in $C, $BAC, $JPM for late Jun, July, Aug.  Mad conviction here.