Sunday, November 9, 2014

Nov 9 - GLD potential bear trap

Not totally unexpected but futures took a major u-turn before Friday's open and I went flat after being heavily short right after the open.  Around midday switched to a modest long.  I think there's a high possibility of more upside because the short trade could have been extremely crowded and more of a bear trap than true breakdown.  Although I was betting on a breakdown, I was highly suspicious on the downward movement's force since we broke long-time support a couple weeks ago.

There has been a huge amounting of reporting that gold will fall further on financial media.  Also this set up was almost too similar to what happened in 2013.  In 2013, the drop caught everyone by surprise whereas this time many were expecting to track the 'triple bottom' level and its potential breakdown.  Too many people bearish and too clear of a set up.  In addition, there was no volume or push on the down moves.

Although I am looking long term to short gold, waiting for a better opportunity when bears have felt more pain and the goldbugs get renewed confidence.  The ideal situation would be for the weekly frame to become overbought on stochs/ CCI.  That typically has been a very high % short bet in the past.

As of now, tracking 2 possibilities, the first being another u- shaped bounce into Dec/ Jan and then back down and effectively breaking support or a stronger one that verifies a triple bottom with gold moving up into next year.  There is also a third possibility that this squeeze was a very temporary one and gold actually confirms the setup for a major move down but I currently have that as a remote possibility.

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