Sunday, December 14, 2014

Dec 14 - Bounce coming this week?

This last week was definitely a very whippy week on both sides.  SPY after an initial bounce confirmed the HYG sell signal I had posted about 2 weeks ago (also indicated in yellow boxes in SPY chart).  I managed to catch some of the downside this week after being initially stopped out and am looking for some bounce Monday and either more downside or churn.  We are very far outside the Bollinger and would be surprising not to see some bounce even if it intraday.  However, based on the volume still peaked out, I expect more downside going forward.  I would also like to see HYG recover which has been leading out of the last 2 downturns before going long.  On a longer term scale, the negative divergence between the indexes and HYG is increasing a LOT.  This is definitely something watch for as we might be setting up for a bigger correction down the line.

GLD continues to hold steady but gold miners are taking a beating.  Perhaps a lot of bearishness or end of the year tax-selling?  Regardless still bullish going into next year but switching to short term trades in NUGT until the negative divergence, which is quite extreme right now.

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Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts. Also ha...