Saturday, January 3, 2015

Jan 3 update - Intermediate downside potential

Right now the short term bullish case has been threatened and it is very possible that January begins with corrective activity.  The market had every reason to post a Christmas rally but failed to do so and was marked by end of the day weakness which concluded on a fairly solid selloff the last trading day of the month.

The $RUT index posted a sell signal on the daily and $VIX also is showing strength and has room to move above before it is tested by its upper Bollinger range.

Seasonality aside, the recent early Dec bounce seemed to have been too exaggerated off the bottom with not enough follow through.  These strong bounces that flare out quickly often are followed by even stronger downturns.  As a recent bull, I would have preferred to see a more steady move up.  Even if we recover here, I would be cautious given the awkwardness of this bounce in Dec.

On a short term time scale (60 min), the indexes posted buy signals so this gives some reason to those short to be cautious as dip buyers could easily move in on Monday when the market opens in earnest.

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Feb 27 - $shak primed for a big move

Still holding $RIG Mar2 and Mar16 calls which are up 100-200%.  $shak settling nicely and I have plenty of time with Jun 45 calls