Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Jan 7 - Will the bullish reversal follow through?

Today was marked by a very large gap up and choppy but significant move up through the day and stalled out after FOMC minutes were released.  Although bullish and at the moment futures are up big which will probably mean a gap tomorrow also.  This move could mirror the rebound in mid Dec although it is a bit odd it didn't top out any indicators including the Bollingers.

A bit unclear how the indexes will respond in intermediate term.  Could be a 1-3 day oversold bounce or heading towards retest of highs.  Today's reversal came at a slightly odd location for an intermediate downturn.  In the last 2 years we haven't seen VIX not enter overbought territory in stochs and/or CCI for multiple day downturns.  In addition, on the indexes like SPY not even on an 60 min time frame was there any froth or re-tests of lows which is extremely common before a reversal.  Although we need to respect price action, where the market turned is a bit unusual and from a cyclical standpoint seems a bit incomplete which leaves the market to turn down again quickly not unlike post-Christmas if this sharp up move runs out of steam.

Either way, there isn't much of an edge in either direction and the next couple days should reveal the market's hand more clearly.



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