Sunday, February 22, 2015

Feb 22 - Continued upside?

After much consolidation, the market made a sold move up on Friday.  There is still room to go up on the weekly and although overbought on short time frame, having based for a few months before making this up move should give this trend more power.   An additional plus is the positive seasonality in upcoming months.

More detailed analysis check out the weekly summary at Urban Carmel's Fat Pitch

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Feb 17 - Possible for major upside

Last week we broke decisively upward from the long term consolidation zone.  In particular, QQQ and IWM look promising having established nice bases and are leading the move up.  We are also heading into very seasonally positive months of Mar-Apr.  On a short term time frame, the tape is trending very clearly.  For targets, I will looking at the roughly the upper trendline which has often produced consolidation/ pullbacks but that is quite far away.

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Feb 7 - Weekend update, consolidation or breakout?

This week was a major fumble once again by the bears and we find ourselves at the upper end of the consolidation zone or slightly north of it.  On the positive side, junk bonds (HYG) continue to show strength and even positive divergence which is good for a potential risk-on mode.

QQQ has an extremely strong bullish set up and has been grinding back and forth on declining volume.  If we decline again this could be an excellent long entry with clear stop at lower trendline.

SPY on the 1 hr time frame issued a sell signal but also moved to the upper end of its consolidation zone and on the daily, moved north of its consolidation zone.

$NYA at the upper end of its zone and overbought on stochs, very possible we see another downturn this week.  

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Feb 4 - Short term uptrend but within consolidation zone

A decent risk to reward short opportunity within consolidation zone for a short term move.  Stop should be set very close above the upper trendline.  Some bullish indicators like HYG acting very strong and $NYUD volume spiking on the up days which should give caution to bears.  If we break out up, then a decent chance we are heading towards retests of highs.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...