Sunday, March 29, 2015

Mar 29 - Slightly bullish inflection point

Currently sitting flat waiting to see what happens early this week.  Price action wasn't super encouraging on Friday, I had expected a bit more of a bounce considering the lack of downward volume pressure.  Considering the big sell off Thursday, I was surprised to not see a 'distribution' type day register in the $NYUD.  This is good for the bulls.

SPY is in a weak bounce area, it hasn't sold off the point the market is very oversold which makes playing future bounces (if they arrive) more difficult.  There are quite a few scenarios possible which is why I am not in the market now.   My gut feeling is when the signals are mixed like this we could see continued froth for the intermediate term.

1. Bounce that makes it up to resistance then back down
2.  Small bounce that is sold into that doesn't reach prior resistance and retest support for another bounce up
3.  Small bounce that is sold into that breaks support
4.  Small bounce that is sold into that holds support for another retest of previous highs' resistance.
5.  Lastly, a bounce materializing into new all time highs (I don't see much mention of this over the Net, so perhaps this one will happen!).

Basically, unless the time frame is very short, I would rather be towards the top or bottom of this zone to take a position.
I had DUST for a one day trade from Thurs/ Fri but decided to unload as I thought it was still possible for GLD to bounce early this week based on the hammer printed Friday but it could easily go down.  I was also still waiting for it to go a bit higher and hit previous overbought levels so I would feel  more comfortable shorting.  The negative divergence in the miners makes this an even more potentially successful angle if you are short GLD.

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