Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Mar 31 - Considerable risk of further downside

Not surprisingly, the market reversed and it is possible the indexes test the lower zone of their current consolidation zone.  Currently flat except for a SLV short that at the moment doesn't seem to be gaining much momentum and will be watching carefully in case this recent downturn was just a corrective pullback.

On the SPY daily, if it breaks the lower support, it could fall a long way down.
The 60 min frame also shows room to downward movement until we are oversold.  It has a good chance of breaking the lower trendline.
$VIX also has room to go up.  If it does hit the upper Bollinger, will be interesting to see if it is rejected or continues going up.
$WLSH in a bit of a grey zone where if it fails below recent lows, it could slip quite a bit further
One positive is the lack of down volume in the last couple of weeks and strong up volume in $NYSE.  The orange box hasn't shown any major flares which is somewhat atypical.  Not an indicator to solely trade on, but I refer to it as a 'suspicious' indicator in the sense I tend to be more cautious when this is pointing in the opposite direction of where my original view of the market.
Since confirming an island reversal, my SLV short position isn't going anywhere yet.  If the overall market falls strongly, we might see a flight to fear assets, including precious metals.

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Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here