Thursday, April 30, 2015

Apr 30 - Potential intermediate term trend change

Today exceeded my expectations and unfortunately I missed the meat of today's slide although I had been short from the previous day.  Closed QQQ shorts in the morning and missed more than half of the down move.  When long a mid sized position of SPY at close looking for a bounce tomorrow and planning on going flat into the weekend.  If we gap down at all I will exit my position pre-market.  Some indexes such as small caps were crushed today which often leads the bigger indexes down such as SPY and DIA.  Depending on how we bounce (I am looking for at least 1/3 of the move down from the previous peak which lines up the opening gap down from today, but a 1/2 to 2/3 retrace might be preferable and might take more than a day to complete), I will be looking to reload shorts for another wave down sometime early/ mid next week.

Today was remarkable in how quickly we broke through levels of support.

Very oversold here and after two consecutive gaps down, it is very possible to see consolidation or even a strong spike back up that could entice longs to reenter only to trap them on the way down.  Ones capable of inflecting pain on both the bulls and bears are movements I often most readily look for.  On 60 min frame, the CCI/ stochs/ RSI very close to a lauch zone but we might just gap up strong tomorrow and continue moving on up.

SPY daily showing increased volume that are interrupting the previously downtrending volume pattern.  This is not bullish unless the spikes are on positive days so I will be surprised that the downturn has been completed.

QQQ shows the failed breakout more readily and perhaps leaves more downside because the failure is more pronounced.

Apr 30 - False breakout confirming

Sitting short QQQ after re-entering around close yesterday.  Assuming no miraculous reversal today, it is difficult to say what kind of downside targets to look for since this has been a pretty ugly failure of a breakout.  We could easily fall to 106.5-107 today in QQQ and there is a lot of room to fall in SPY on a 10-15 min frame.

Update 1100am - unloaded QQQ shorts for now after seeing pos divergence setting up.  May re-short later but will wait and see.

 VIX also finally making a move up.  All the churning the last couple of weeks might resolve in a strong push higher.

QQQ so far following through on the stoch/ CCI sell signal from a few days ago.  This signal was strengthened by the upper BB overthrow.

Monday, April 27, 2015

Apr 27 - False breakout?

I went from being super bullish to being nervous about my QQQ long on the exaggerated gap up to fairly bearish.  Today marked a red candle that opened above the upper BB.  In the last 7 times this has happened, 5 times it has led to short term downturns, 1 time it stayed flat, and 1 time it continued moving up.   I went short QQQ with a starting position at close.  The breadth in the indexes is pretty weak and IWM took a massive hit today along with biotechs.  VIX not unsurprisingly bounced once again off the downward trendline and is about to issue another buy signal.

The table from Rob Hanna's Quantitative Edges and corresponding article,

This divergence definitely spooked me and caused me to pull off half of my QQQ long EOD Friday along with the unconvincing action in the other indexes.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Apr 23 - Potential breakout in equities

Need to see what happens towards close but so far very constructive action and a very big spike up on the 5 min chart.  Started long position in QQQ and assuming we close strong, will be looking to turn this into a swing trade.

Apr 23 - Indexes holding relatively strong - breakout coming?

SPY/ QQQ has tapped their upper trendline several times already and showing resilience despite some ragged tape.  Even if the breakout doesn't happen this week and we manage to hold ground, I would be inclined to think next week will do the trick.  Rather than a blast up through resistance, the indexes might just grind up through it.  If and when they clear resistance, I would expect the velocity to pick up.

From the bearish camp, one could argue that the indexes are struggling to make it past resistance and will need to reset and dip down into the consolidation zone.

I was as of this week expecting a move back down off of resistance but it isn't happening.  We should know fairly definitely by end of day, at the latest by end of week.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Apr 22 - Closed at resistance again

SPY/ QQQ closed right at resistance where it failed last time and VIX is at a bounce area.  The market has been very resilient so long term market looks like it will finally break to upside but at the same time vulnerable to another spill.  Odds are not great in either direction.  We should know by tomorrow whether we fall back into consolidation zone or break upwards.

Apr 22 - Stopped out of short

Stopped out of SPY short at 210.2.  Things look pretty muddled now.  VIX is near a bounce zone but the market seems pretty resilient here.  If it continues to trash around in this zone, it could only be bullish for the intermediate term.  Going to stay flat for now.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Apr 21 - Short set up

This is pretty good short set up right now for equities. Sitting short from open in SPY. Easy fold if we breach above previous highs which would allow a very tight stop above. QQQ looks good too with an exhaustion candle printed at top of range. Also a clear fold if trendline is breached.

VIX also printing reversal candle at low end of range.

Apr 21 - Selling off of resistance

The indexes after posting an impressive bounce yesterday have hit resistance and setting up another move into the consolidation zone.  Even if we end up slightly positive, the indexes are set up for a solid down day within 1-2 days as we will print a reversal candle in both SPY and VIX.

Friday, April 17, 2015

Apr 17 - Bears wake up

Not unexpectedly, the indexes dipped after hugging resistance for a few days.  I was warning that picking up new positions was dangerous as we were at an inflection point.  Picked up SPY short premarket at 209.1 and have fairly strong expectations that it will test the lower trendline on the daily around 206.  VIX has room to run to the upper trendline and one can see how it clearly bounced off the lower trendline vigorously.

On multiple time frames price has fallen out of rising wedge that finally exhausted itself.  It is possible we see a rebound and go to ATH but I am guessing the market will need to reset and regain momentum to punch through to new highs.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Apr 16 - Stuck at resistance

SPY is churning right under resistance and it remains to be seen whether we clear to ATH like NYSE.  Still watching to see if we drop back down into the consolidation zone or break to upside.  Again, not a great location to take on new positions.

USO may be a very short term short but probably not one to be very aggressive with.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Apr 15 - Potential breakout

SPY broke above its trendline but needs to close above previous highs to confirm.  Of interest is $NYA breaking through year long resistance.  If gains can hold through the close, this could be the start of another intermediate leg up.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Apr 14 - Closed right at resistance

The 60 min sell signal did produce downside but it was extremely short lived.  My SDS position got stopped out on the spike back up and while it isn't a sure thing in the short term it looks probable in the intermediate term that we will see new all time highs.  For most of the indexes we are seeing fairly clean consolidation with diminishing volume and corresponding up volume on the $NYUV indicator.

One thing I am watching for is a sudden drop off resistance ala Jan 27 when the day before we looked very primed to move up.  So a solid gap down tomorrow shouldn't be viewed as a surprise as many longs will be loaded up ready for a potential breakout only to be disappointed.  But if we do have a solid close above the upper trendlines, odds increase dramatically that we will see another solid leg up.

In SPY + other indexes, we are right at resistance, making it an inflection point where we could easily go up or down.  If we were to hit the bottom trendline, I would be fairly aggressive going long.  If we clear the upper trendline, we could see another solid move up.  The current location isn't a great spot to be picking up new longs.

$NYA also closed right at long time resistance.  It has been rejected several times and we could see it rejected again.

QQQ looks extremely promising.  I probably like how this is set up the best out of the indexes.

 DIA is a bit choppier looking but promising nonetheless.

 VIX issued a buy on the daily recently which is a potential flag for longs meaning we might go down into the consolidation zone again to gather more buying power.

The 60 min frame is a bit unsettled.  After issuing a solid sell signal, it issued a weak buy signal.  SPY could easily drop back into the lower part of the consolidation zone.  We should know by tomorrow whether we will consolidate another week or breakout soon.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Apr 13 - sell signal SPY, buy signal VIX

Lets see how the close is but for now sell signal on 30/60 min frame on SPY and buy in VIX.  Entered SDS midday and looking for some minor follow through in short term.  SLV was trimmed by 2/3 due to weak selling volume and that indexes may dip leading to potential shift into precious metals.

Apr 13 - premarket update

The SLV short entered EOD Friday looking good at the moment.  If things close well may look to make this a week long position maybe longer.

In the indexes, going to watch if any weakness occurs.  It may not and the msrket blasts off but on the 60 min frame its possible we get a slight pause on the CCI.
NYUD volume looks a little bit ambivalent after very strong up volume a few weeks ago.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Apr 10 - Selling SPY longs at potential resistance

Sold a batch of SPY calls I picked up two days ago for solid gain.  Why?

-sell signal on 30 min frame
-near sell signal on 60 min frame
-at a level in VIX where it oftens reverses, look at CCI, RSI, and price.  It has bounced usually during last few months
- SPY also near resistance and may consolidate, but also may push to ATH.  Although I'm bullish I think odds aren't great on short time frame.

Looking at maybe shorting gold/ silver as both weekly and daily showing black reversal candles.

Monday, April 6, 2015

Apr 6 - Bulls storm back

Sorry for not posting charts but I'm in a small pueblo near Macchu Picchu and unfortunately only have a weak internet connection.  I am currently in a small position of NUGT short because of a large black reversal candle in gold.  I will probably sell EOD tomorrow if things look right. after selling NUGT on a position taken two days ago.

The indexes made an impressive recovery and if we continue to consolidate we could be  looking at all time highs this month.  Thar said I am going to hold off on taking an index position until things settle more.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...