Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Apr 14 - Closed right at resistance

The 60 min sell signal did produce downside but it was extremely short lived.  My SDS position got stopped out on the spike back up and while it isn't a sure thing in the short term it looks probable in the intermediate term that we will see new all time highs.  For most of the indexes we are seeing fairly clean consolidation with diminishing volume and corresponding up volume on the $NYUV indicator.

One thing I am watching for is a sudden drop off resistance ala Jan 27 when the day before we looked very primed to move up.  So a solid gap down tomorrow shouldn't be viewed as a surprise as many longs will be loaded up ready for a potential breakout only to be disappointed.  But if we do have a solid close above the upper trendlines, odds increase dramatically that we will see another solid leg up.

In SPY + other indexes, we are right at resistance, making it an inflection point where we could easily go up or down.  If we were to hit the bottom trendline, I would be fairly aggressive going long.  If we clear the upper trendline, we could see another solid move up.  The current location isn't a great spot to be picking up new longs.

$NYA also closed right at long time resistance.  It has been rejected several times and we could see it rejected again.

QQQ looks extremely promising.  I probably like how this is set up the best out of the indexes.

 DIA is a bit choppier looking but promising nonetheless.

 VIX issued a buy on the daily recently which is a potential flag for longs meaning we might go down into the consolidation zone again to gather more buying power.

The 60 min frame is a bit unsettled.  After issuing a solid sell signal, it issued a weak buy signal.  SPY could easily drop back into the lower part of the consolidation zone.  We should know by tomorrow whether we will consolidate another week or breakout soon.

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Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here