Friday, April 17, 2015

Apr 17 - Bears wake up

Not unexpectedly, the indexes dipped after hugging resistance for a few days.  I was warning that picking up new positions was dangerous as we were at an inflection point.  Picked up SPY short premarket at 209.1 and have fairly strong expectations that it will test the lower trendline on the daily around 206.  VIX has room to run to the upper trendline and one can see how it clearly bounced off the lower trendline vigorously.

On multiple time frames price has fallen out of rising wedge that finally exhausted itself.  It is possible we see a rebound and go to ATH but I am guessing the market will need to reset and regain momentum to punch through to new highs.

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July 21 - Still massively long banks, took short term longs in NVDA, BABA, HAL, OAS

Probably 2/3 of the options account is in banks.  Maybe 1/2 regionals and 1/2 XLF, C, BAC.  Expecting another run up in equities into Augus...