Thursday, April 30, 2015

Apr 30 - Potential intermediate term trend change

Today exceeded my expectations and unfortunately I missed the meat of today's slide although I had been short from the previous day.  Closed QQQ shorts in the morning and missed more than half of the down move.  When long a mid sized position of SPY at close looking for a bounce tomorrow and planning on going flat into the weekend.  If we gap down at all I will exit my position pre-market.  Some indexes such as small caps were crushed today which often leads the bigger indexes down such as SPY and DIA.  Depending on how we bounce (I am looking for at least 1/3 of the move down from the previous peak which lines up the opening gap down from today, but a 1/2 to 2/3 retrace might be preferable and might take more than a day to complete), I will be looking to reload shorts for another wave down sometime early/ mid next week.

Today was remarkable in how quickly we broke through levels of support.

Very oversold here and after two consecutive gaps down, it is very possible to see consolidation or even a strong spike back up that could entice longs to reenter only to trap them on the way down.  Ones capable of inflecting pain on both the bulls and bears are movements I often most readily look for.  On 60 min frame, the CCI/ stochs/ RSI very close to a lauch zone but we might just gap up strong tomorrow and continue moving on up.

SPY daily showing increased volume that are interrupting the previously downtrending volume pattern.  This is not bullish unless the spikes are on positive days so I will be surprised that the downturn has been completed.

QQQ shows the failed breakout more readily and perhaps leaves more downside because the failure is more pronounced.

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...