Friday, May 1, 2015

May 1 - Strong bounce but is it temporary?

Just sold SPY long picked up from yesterday afternoon into strength this morning for a .7% gain at 209.7.  Have a smaller portion that I will let ride but the stop is set pretty tight below today's open.  It looks a bit like Apr 20.   It remains to be seen whether this buying with have any follow through.

This is the 60 min frame with this morning's set up.

A speculative sketch.  What happens in the upper yellow box of resistance is key.  Top of the box is where I would probably look to put on a short position.  But it is possible we blast through it.  Generally my best trades occur when I have 3-4 scenarios mapped out with stop + exit clearly outlined so that I avoid 'discretionary' trading.  If the price moves along a scenario I haven't outlined, it is usually best I stay out.

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Feb 17 - Large short position now

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