Thursday, June 25, 2015

Jun 25 - closed SPY puts/ went long IWM calls

Closed SPY puts/ went long IWM calls at close.  Seems like a real lack of participation based on the lower volume than yesterday and the lack of follow through on the afternoon downward spike.  Plus there is major event risk to the upside if Greece comes to a solution in the next few days.

SPY came far from hitting my downside target and I feel strongly a retrace is coming.  If not we might see a big gap down which I feel is less possible given the weakness of the move.

Things generally though are mixed.  Sell signals on the indexes on the daily but buy signals on the hourly.  That can mean some strong snapbacks if combined with less than participatory action.

Volume basically even in SPY

IWM saw weaker volume setting up a gap up tomorrow.

VIX very possibly will retrace based on the overbought CCI

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Jun 23 - Indexes stalling, potential for retrace increasing

Sitting short SPY with the daily and hourly printing near or complete sell signals.  On the 15 min frame, SPY settling into a upward wedge that will confirm with a bit of downside.

The daily printing a black reversal candle which might be worse for the bears that a red candle today as it could set up a big gap down tomorrow.

Hourly sell signal has yet to confirm but so far price action is stalling.  Higher risk indexes such as IWM and QQQ are noticeably weaker than SPY/ DIA.

SPY printing reversal candle at top of range.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Jun 22 - Potential breakout or reversion to post OPEX weakness?

This is a tough call.  I am slightly bearish based on reversion to mean technicals but IWM is officially breaking out and QQQ/ SPY are very close to ATH.  We are at a lot of support/ resistances and the next 1-2 days should determine whether the market dips back into consolidation which seems more than likely considering how stretched the current move is.  If we don't pullback soon we might finally be breaking up and out of this multi month consolidation zone that has been difficult for both bulls and bears.

After being stopped out premarket out of SPY short, I re-entered at close based on the VXO support and negative divergence on the 1 hr chart on SPY.  That said, if we don't gap down or sell down an gap up immediately on open, we might be looking at a breakout and once again, I will exit.

If not, the difficult post OPEX seasonality that has been mentioned often could finally take hold and bring the month to a bearish close.  Almost every year in the past 10 years has turned negative, especially those that had positive OPEX weeks.

Crude is basing very nicely and a touch of the lower BB will a great long entry.

Negative divergence on the hourly.  We have had 2 sell signals fail.  Will the third do the trick?  If not, we are probably looking at a trend change.

SPY has not performed well after low volume up days such as today.  

$VIX touched its lower BB but it is not a strong signal like a hollow candle below the lower BB.  Stochs are also oversold yet.

$VXO, however, does look like it is ready to bounce.  I will watching this carefully tomorrow.

HYG is underperforming relative to SPY over the past 2 weeks.  After printing a couple of black reversal candles, it might dip back down and drag equities along with it.

IWM blasting off but far above the upper BB.  Waiting for signs of stalling or weakness but none yet and so far  a tough short.

QQQ right below resistance.  One more push up and this could be off to the races.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Jun 19 - Consolidation for more upside or another pullback going into post OPEX week?

Consolidating after yesterday's strong move.  Unclear whether we move to ATH but IWM has already done so and QQQ is very close to doing so which puts things in a risk on environment for the moment.  If we weren't heading into one of the most bearish post OPEX weeks of the year, I would be leaning more strongly bullish in the indexes.  There is a chance of a pullback after we get closer to the upper BB but at the moment I don't see anything menacing in terms of a longer term pullback.
QQQ printing a promising 10 min flag

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Jun 18- Bullish open

Exited SPY short pre and we cracked upper trendline with vigor.  Didnt make the switch to long unfortunately and watching how things settle.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Jun 17 - Fading FOMC news via SPY short

Short at close based on trendline rejection on the hourly.  This is a very short term play as Friday OPEX could get wild.

Jun 17 - post FOMC update, sold SPY calls

Entered SPY calls right before announcement and just sold them.  Probably a bit too early but I was only swinging for a double here in case things whipped back around.

Jun 17 - No man's land

Currently sitting flat and planning to put in buy order in SPY right before 2pm announcement to catch a potential spike up.  Seems like most analysts expect mention of Sept rate increase and if that doesn't happen we could see a massive short squeeze.  I plan on selling into this spike if it arrives very quickly as we are in a no-man's land on the 1 hr, 2 hr, and daily.  If no spike quickly arrives I will let go of the position.  Things could easily go in either direction although I am slightly bullish and even more so if things hold with a small loss or better today in the indexes.

Hourly trashing within consolidation and this usually means a break up if there is continued back and forth.

The daily posted a good buy signal which I caught on Monday and sold yesterday but there is potential for this bounce to burn out.  But if the announcement is dovish we could see things moving towards ATH off the recent double bottom off of the lower BB.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Jun 15 - Long SPY setup brewing

I am currently flat and waiting for a bit more settling to look at longs.  VIX is printing a black reversal candle and SPY a hollow reversal candle.  We might get an OPEX ramp up but waiting to see how we close.

Not as oversold as I would like nor seeing positive divergence but looks very similar to a setup from Apr 1.

If by EOD, volume drops from Friday and the candles looks good I will probably look at SPY longs.

SPY in another descending expanding wedge we generally creates large moves towards the end.

SPY forming a double bottom not unlike Apr 1, but the bottom could easily fail as trendlines have failed.

 Will be looking for SPY vol to decrease from Friday.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Jun 12 - Morning dip in equities may not last long

I closed out my TWM longs early this morning and SPY hit my potential reversal level on a dime.  It is possible the market recovers this afternoon to set up upside into next week.  Either way, I am waiting to close for more info and am currently flat.

SPY did a good job of confirming its sell signal from yesterday but I wouldn't get aggressive if at all going short here as these descending wedges as they progress get increasingly whippy like a stretched out rubber band that can snap back violently if it slips it of your hand.

Looking ahead I may be looking to go short post OPEX as it is one of the most bearish OPEX historically speaking, weeks of the year.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Jun 11 - Potential for slight pullback

Yesterday's up volume strongly outpaced down volume.  On those spikes it has often led to down days immediately after if only temporary corrections.
SPY 60 min frame presents a good chance of consolidation/ pullback in near term.
2 hr frame also presenting potential sell signal

Jun 11- Took profits in SSO XIV

Looking to reenter if we have a light pullback.  VIX is creeping back up also

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Jun 10 - Potential for new ATH's

My SSO XIV positions deep in the green now and looking for continued upside although we may see a pullback tomorrow.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Jun 8 - Long SSO, XIV

Started at close positions in SSO and XIV based on oversold readings in hourly and daily and positive divergence.  Problem is we haven't received that end of the day 'hint' of a bulllish spike that has typically preceded big bounces but the diminishing daily volume is def a positive.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Jun 4 - More churn in equities, seeking UUP short exit

Equities continues to be a total mess except for those trading on the nanosecond time frames.  I may enter a long if we print a black reversal VIX candle and volume on SPY does not look threatening but I have zero interest sticking my hand in the blender intraday.

I was stopped out of USO long yesterday morning and seeking a return to lower BB for potential long entry.

UUP seems to be losing downward steam and likely I close short as volume and range may be diminishing.  In addition, seems most expect the Greece bailout to happen which would have limited upside when it is executed.

UUP hourly is setting up for bounce maybe.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Jun 2 - Bounce set up in equities

$ONE:$CPC ratio lining up for a bounce at least for a few days in equities.  It has triggered fairly well in the last few months.

Jun 2 - USO long, re-entered UUP short

USO still grinding up.  I am planning to hold through Thurs and probably get out of the way of the OPEC meeting on Jun 5.  It would be great if we get a low volume pullback as the areas indicated in yellow.  If so, I will jump back in with 50% position and bounce in and out until the mini-upleg is over.

Also re-entered UUP short a bit smaller than my initial entry.  Somewhat surprisingly it triggered after I let go of it yesterday.  Potential target would be 2/3 of the retrace of the recent move up and a more aggressive target would be a full retrace of the bounce.  Selling volume today looks promising.

Market is still in chop mode.  Managed to unload AAPL long right after open when it almost made it to even.  Will be watching it to see if the overall market recovers.  If so, I may reconsider another entry but I don't like how it slipped out of its consolidation pattern.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Jun 1 - AAPL potential long

Dumped UUP short and still holding USO long.  Also added AAPL long which looks quite promising.

SPY breaking up and out.  But how far remains to be seen as rallies have been short lived.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...