On an intermediate term basis, I am looking to tilt more towards bearish setups as there are lots of things looking off like how the market is being held up by a handful of leaders - exhibiting strong negative divergence between small caps/ equal weighted ETF's vs SPY/ QQQ. We are also seeing an unusually high number of 52 week lows despite having bounced significantly from the Greek debt crisis low. I am hoping the market can bounce higher for a better short opportunity.
SPY hit the first downside target I had sketched out earlier in the week.
Becoming more oversold so risk of a short squeeze is increasing but it is possible we retrace to 50-66%.
One thing that made me a bit more cautious was the weak daily volume. Stochs and CCI still in a solid sell signal though.
GLD seems to be bottoming, a bit late as I entered the DUST short too early but price/ volume action is becoming promising. From the bullish percent data over the past year, having hit 0% bullish, we are at most 1-5 days from a bottom.
Selling volume diminishing although we are still moving downwards.
Now in territory similar to where significant bounces have occurred in the past 2 years.
Dollar weakness may provide some tailwinds for a potential move up in commodities such as PM's. As of now however, while the dollar is overbought, it isn't a strong signal that it will see a dip going forward.