Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Aug 12 - Continued weakness, long set ups brewing but not quite ripe

Today we have had our second unfilled gap in a row and 'may' be setting up for a long position.  The case against is that volume is strong, a clear sign of institutional distribution, and we have fell out of the consolidation zone that was offering a bullish setup.  Depending on how things close, I may take a look at a long SPY or XIV but not right now as things are still fragile.

VIX hit the first resistance zone and is far north of the upper BB.  Assuming we aren't entering a correction, things might stall out here and reverse.

 $VXO painting a more promising reversal picture
 QQQ slipped out of its consolidation zone and setting up with positive divergence but we could easily continue to fall.
 SOXX handing in there on the lower trendline
 SPY is setting up nicely for a spike up but it is too early to make a move yet.
 GLD and miners have blasted off.  NUGT is up 50% for the last week.  If GLD hits the yellow resistance zone, I will probably look at shorting miners or GLD itself.

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...