Thursday, August 13, 2015

Aug 13 - Potential bear trap - long SPY, XIV

Today looked like low volume consolidation.  Went long XIV SPY at close.  We could easily drop back down but this looks very similar to right off the bottom situations where shorts jumped back in after the first sign of weakness, leading to a big gap up.

Yellow areas indicate where this has happened before, often with big gaps up.

$VXO confirmed its sell signal today but longs are not out of the woods until the indexes break up and out of its descending wedge/ channel.

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...