Sunday, August 2, 2015

Aug 2 - Weekly recap, GLD still bottoming, potential SPY short unexpectedly the equities market rebounded and we find ourselves in a bit of a no-man's land where it isn't a great position to be long or short.  Some conflicting information via the Fat Pitch for a good read can be found here.  We are heading into some seasonality headwinds that may lead to a push down.

An excerpt from Fat Pitch's post, "Most months start strongly. August is an exception; it is typically weak through mid-month. The entire month, recall, is typically weak, coming on the back of seasonally strong July. This year, July did not disappoint, rising 2.3% (NDX rose 4.4%; chart below from Stock Almanac)."

GLD is still hanging in there but not making much movement.  It issued a buy signal on the daily RSI but wasn't convincing.  Volume hasn't increased either which is promising, as the sellers as not out in force.  I am going to give my DUST puts a few more days to perk up before I will probably let go of them at a loss.  The longer we linger down here, the more likely it becomes that a wash out low occurs.  If this is a temporary bottom, I would expect a fairly strong spike to the upside.

SPY printed a sell signal on the hourly with a pretty good negative divergence set up so it is very possible we see a pullback starting this week.  I held up on going short because of the low volume Friday and wanted to see a bit more evidence before jumping in.  If we gap down Monday I will go short.

VIX is also printing a buy signal which has been fairly reliable in the lower zone with a hollow reversal candle.

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