Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Sept 2 - Listless open, retest still in play

Decent gap up now drifting down but with the low volume not biased one way or the other.  Still have the retest in play and holding the SPY put spreads from Friday that continue to burn off time value so I am happy to hold as long as it looks like things will hold below 198.

Looking ahead, it would be bullish actually to see the markets retest sooner than later.  I have a set up on the 6 mo chart lines representing potential positive divergences which would be a set up for VXX put spreads but am waiting until the set up is ripe.  If we move up to the 50% retracement around 200 in SPY or a bit above and linger there it might be more bearish because we would have more room to fall down and have more momentum to break to much lower lows.  So in short, I would argue the long term bullish case is strengthened by near term bearishness and visa versa.

A great setup would be to see a bounce off the speculative lower trendline on weaker volume and positive divergence in CCI/ RSI.

On the 10 min chart, really in no man's land.  A weak positive day would be more bearish to me than if we turn red.  So far very weak participation so I would be inclined to fade whatever direction happens today.

Again, would like to see a positie divergence set up here before taking any sizeable long.

VIX hanging around so this downturn might not be over.


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