Friday, September 25, 2015

Sept 24 - Bear stew

Looks like we finally got that spike up after seeing the market almost methodically marched down on increasingly lower volume.  These scenarios can rope in a lot of shorts who get enticed by the idea of 'retesting lows'.  This weekend I am going to do some research of some of these messy lows and see if I can come up with some scenarios as potential guides.

Right now, one idea is that we chop like crazy to only frustrate both bulls and bears to bottom in Oct.  When exactly, I have no idea.  Might be early, mid, or late Oct.  If that continues to be the case, will look to play small ball initiating overbought/ oversold conditions near the bollingers.  The only thing that I do feel somewhat confident of is that the market is highly likely to thrash around for the next month.

Some other indexes showing signs of short term bottom and when I say that it could be few days to a week before going back down.

Out of all of them, the DAX appears the most promising to make a week long bounce.

1 comment:

Greenlander said...

Very ugly action so far. The expansion move peetered out and almost did a gap fill. The small caps leading to downside isn't good either.

Aug 25 - Re-entered (again) GLD short, long LVS, AMZN, NFLX, SHAK

I have been stopped out twice in last few weeks trying to short GLD.  I have a pretty sizeable position of Nov/ Dec GLD/ GDX puts. Also ha...