Monday, September 28, 2015

Sept 28 - Bearish close

We closed at lows and near term looks more likely we will undercut the daily candles in SPY/ SPX.  How far we go is uncertain but if we continue at the current rate, we might be at a spike low within 2-3 days.  If we gap down huge and rebound to print a hollow candle it might only take 1 day but based on that there is a bit of room on the indicators to max out I am guessing it will take more than a day.

!PMOBUYALL has at least a couple of days before a bottom
 SPY is just started to get moving.  Stochs could be oversold within a day but RSI and CCI has some space to move down.  I will be looking for positive divergence to go long.

VIX very close to the upper band and the first stab at it rarely indicates a top, there is usually a bit of froth before turning back down.

CPC ratio extremely elevated so when this thing turns around it could spike hard.  On the intermediate term lows a lot of the time there was a 1-2 day from the upward spike and the low in equities prices.
 If we compare CPC to the last big dip last fall, there was a 3 day lag until the market bottomed.
So if one averages out the spaces in the indicators looks like 2-4 days until a bottom assuming no big upward spikes that would work off oversold conditions in the meantime.

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Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here