Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Sept 29 - Potential short squeeze

Well looks like that short squeeze I was looking for is materializing, at least based on futures and the hourly which is showing pretty solid positive divergence.  Assuming this futures spike holds through the night, I am probably going to bail on my QQQ puts at open and rebuy them at end of day if tomorrow is a big up day.  If futures somehow take a dive and I get that gap down I was looking for great, but looks less likely now.

Still think the lows need to be retested but it may be we need more momentum to reach them and to shake out some bears and pull in longs.  If the spike occurs tomorrow, it could be a powerful one.

A potential scenario in mind is a strong 1-2 day bounce to work off oversold conditions and then back down again, but this time with more range and volume.  Volume has been lacking here so it's hard to believe this would be an intermediate term bottom but it feels extremely close.

Looking for a 3%+ bounce in QQQ before reshorting if indeed the bounce arrives.

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May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...