Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Sept 8 - Strong gap up but will it hold?

We have a strong move up this morning but not a lot of volume behind it and so far has trouble holding up.  If the market holds around here and prints reversal candles on the daily with low volume, the probability of a down move Weds will be very high.  VIX is stubbornly grinding up despite the gap up.

 Second reversal candle in SPY within three days which may lead to a heavier sell off

Also, an interesting bearish stat courtesy of Rob Hanna Quantifiable Edges.  Only 1 out of 12 weeks ended in the green following such conditions.  If we were to sell off this week, it would set up a nice bounce situation for OPEX week which has been historically bullish.


tellzhang said...

today action is running the bear stops. Too many people are bearish. need to change to bullish before the drop.

Greenlander said...

Totally agree. think Friday was just luring them in.

Jan 20 - Equities caution signal, short SPY, NFLX

Call buying has come back and very good chance of a pullback here