Friday, October 30, 2015

Oct 30 - Short SPY

Not expecting a big move down but some settling next week.  We have retrace the whole move down from August today.

100% retrace

Negative divergence on hourly.  Nothing terribly scary but does look a pullback is due soon even if it only a few days

Red sell bars beginning to appear here.  Thing is they often appear before the move down or up occurs.

Oct 30 - Oil up, USD down, equities melt up

Still sitting on USO long and no other positions.  I do think we may see the equities market settle next week but not placing position yet.

USO making a good move out of consolidation

Looking for a 3-4 day move up in USO

UUP has a sell signal but will wait on this one before going short
 GLD continues to slide, well below where I exited my short position prior to FOMC.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Oct 28 - Stopped out of GLD, XIV and long USO

Looks like the market hasn't liked the Fed leaving the Dec hike on the table.  GLD is getting crushed and knifed through my stop very quickly and UUP is blasting off.  Looks like I could've left a little bit more on the table on the UUP calls.  As for equities, I remain neutral and not interested in making directional bets just yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Oct 27 - Long GLD, XIV

Unloaded UUP calls and looking for a favorable response from the Fed which is really what has been their default response.  Added VXX short around midday.

SPY looks ready for another move up based on stochs CCI

Reversal candle printed on daily

UUP may be ready to pull back.  My only related play on that is being long GLD but I took profits on the UUP long position a couple days ago
 Sold VXX this morning and went long XIV near close.  Looking for a retest of the lower BB
 GLD drifting up above its descending channel.  The price action looks very promising.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Oct 25 - Long GLD, VXX, UUP

Sold GDX put spreads Thurs at breakeven as there was a lot of strength.  GLD looks like it could push up for another mini leg so that it is better overbought on the weekly for a short and have a long bias this week.  Went long GLD Friday

Stepped into a rare VXX long position at Fri close for probably only 1-2 days as VIX/ VXO are setting up for a bounce.

Looking to see equities cool off or at least settle this week but then further upside.

Might be better to wait for a sell signal on gold miners as one hasn't appeared yet.
 Sell signal on daily issued that may take time to confirm.  It has been pretty strong despite GLD's recent weakness.
 Very strong positive divergence in GLD on hourly and a strangely orderly descent. This could result in a big spike.
 30 min showing a descending tightly wound channel
 If GLD hits the cloud and upper stochs, this may be an attractive short again.
 SPY floating up high now and might benefit from consolidation
 USD showing a strong move and I continue to hold 50% of my UUP calls (sold half on Fri)
 Potential reversal time in VIX/ VXO

Monday, October 19, 2015

Oct 19 - Equities choppy, metals/miners down

Equities making an impressive recovery from a gap down and now looks like there will be more upside to hit underside resistance of 205 in SPY.  Still holding short GDX, GLD and long UUP from last week and looking to hold for a couple of weeks.

I left my setup info in this chart to show how wrong I was going short and how strong the market is now.

UUP bouncing from where it should but not a strong one.  Holding now and will see what happens.

 SLV dropping nicely and looking for a 50% retrace or more.
 GDX issuing sell signal on CCI
 GDX entering the in the money zone for my put spreads expiring end of Oct

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Oct 18 - Equities outlook mixed post OPEX, short GLD, GDX, long USD

This week's outlook for equities looks mixed.  Lots of overhead resistance but a lot of upside momentum.  post OPEX weeks have been a bit weak this year so another wrench if possible into the strongly bullish action.  For that reason, I have been flat for a few day from equities after taking a short position earlier in the week that I quickly exited.

Sitting now in fairly large put spreads in GDX, GLD expiring end of month and smaller calls in UUP first wk of Nov.

Pretty good sell signal on daily.

SLV looks like interesting short if a bit early on the weekly frame

SPY is not a great bet in either direction.  May short if it hits the second orange bar.

USD made a weak bounce and only recently its upward movement has hurt precious metals.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Oct 16 - Long UUP, short GLD/ GDX

Equities still look to reach the major overhead supply above but I am staying away from that trade for now.

Went long UUP calls at .63 at 24 strike expiring 1st wk of November yesterday and added GLD, GDX put spreads today expiring EOM.  

Finally crossed trendline
 In an area where it has dipped before

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Oct 15 - Equities chop, potential USD long/ GLD short

I dumped SPY short little bit after open.  Looks like chop mode through OPEX and Monday is a historically very strong day so looking to wait until Mon close to short equities.  Gold and gold miners looking like a very attractive short but not quite there although very close.

We got weak follow through yesterday and none today to downside which is why I am waiting until week to re short.
 USD super close to a strong support zone.
 SPY didn't hit my stop but I pulled the plug on this one anyways.
 UUP also looking interesting and calls are well priced with almost no time premium.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Oct 14 - Potential long USD

Looking to switch out of equities until this potential top is better formed.  Might be very choppy for a bit until we see resolution.  USD long and gold miners short appear to be plays with much more potential range.  Things are lined up pretty nicely here.

Oct 14 - Unconvincing sell off

Not sure what is going to happen here but I am leaning towards more chop before this sell signal on the daily kicks in.  From previous signals it has taken 1-6 days for price to activate to the downside.
Not too much selling pressure so far.

Oct 14 - Mild weakness on open

The ten minute chart showing the reentry today into SPY short.  Assuming my daily system's signal works out, have 1:3 risk to reward which are good odds.  Will def close short if this works at positive divergence on the hourly and/or diminished daily volume and will close at least half at 195 if we fill that gap.

Still remains to be seen to see if today we get follow through.  The open was not promising to the bears as when the market opens flat after a first down day it usually means a short squeeze.

VIX stochs/ CCI on buy signal on the daily but otherwise this is a wait and see day to see if yesterday was just a fake out.

Weak buy signal on 30 min which is something to watch for.
 VIX looks eager to move up.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Oct 13 - Short SPY

Seeing negative divergence on the 1 hr frame, buy signal on VIX daily and sell on SPY daily.  It might take a bit for price to confirm more clearly but VIX spiking has tilted things more bearish.  upon confirmation, will add to position as still possible we melt up.  Starting with 50% position.

TRAN issuing sell signal and weak price action today.

First down day in a week for SPY but things might rebound by close.

VIX looks like a buy here.

Negative divergence, to be seen whether it plays out.  But price is struggling somewhat.

SPY still in uptrend and will need decisive break below channel for shorts.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...