Unless the bulls stage a monster move in Dec/ Jan to all time highs, I think it is possible we have seen a major top and I will be flipping my bias short for pending market weakness. There is a lot of stuff that is problematic including the performance of high yield bonds, high historic price to earnings ratios, etc. but the two things that stick out the most to me are the increasing volatility and the negative divergence in small caps.
I hopefully can get to volatility later this weekend but for now I will focus on the small caps and all world indexes.
1998-2001, in orange there is negative divergence before the double top in SPY and the market quickly entered a downward trend
2005-2007, in orange there is negative divergence btw small caps and SPY and again the market quickly entered a downward trend
Negative divergence in the all-world index which looks eerily similar to the previous H+S top.
$SPX is beginning to trigger various sell signals on the monthly such as CCI, stochs, RSI, MACD. Once the CCI/ stochs cross into >20 territory it will confirm a long term downward trend. Still possibility for a recovery but it needs to happen soon.