Sunday, November 15, 2015

Nov 15 - GLD readying for bounce, equities still cooling

Still in GLD call spreads/ NUGT from Weds.  Looking for a min 1/3 retrace as selling volume is dropping (it fell to a zone where we have had reactions in the past) and a sharp bounce should occur any day now.  On the equities side, looking for some bottoming mid/ later this week to go long into the seasonally positive Thanksgiving week but not yet.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Nov 11 - Long GLD/ NUGT

Looks like a very good long setup for GLD/ miners right now.  In GLD call spreads and NUGT and looking for a 1-2 bounce.  Equities continue to churn/ drip and will wait until next week to potentially go long.  Right now the picture is too unclear to pick a side.

Positive divergence on the hourly which could lead to a big spike up.

Monday, November 9, 2015

Nov 9 - Bullish setup fails, potential minor correction in SPY

I was fully expecting a gap up today based on the candle and zig zaggy consolidation from last week.  Right after the gap fill failed I exited my SPY call spreads at a 35% loss and am now flat.  We also have a MACD sell signal on the daily which usually portends to a 1-2 wk pullback.  That said, I don't like the idea of going short either as we could have a reaction to retest previous highs.  Looking for some settling to go long into Thanksgiving week and maybe Dec UUP calls if the USD consolidates.

Friday, November 6, 2015

Nov 6 - Bullish setup into next week

Today showed very good strength towards the close after initially the market was spooked by the strong jobs number.  I think the rising of rates could be seen as a negative but it is much more important that the overall economy is strengthening.  Therefore once the market has time to think about it, the strong jobs report could be seen as a good thing.

After being shaken out yesterday, repurchased VXX put spreads for 18.0/18.5 expiring today and caught the late afternoon ramp.  With all the up and down today, it was a difficult trade and a few times came close to hitting my stop.  Right now, still sitting on the 211/212 SPY Nov 20 call spreads which are unfortunately underwater but I may look to reposition to catch the seasonally strong Thanksgiving week instead.

The 30 min frame looks like business as usual.

The hourly bounced nicely from the lower BB and lower trendline and issued buy signal on CCI.

 The daily printed a very promising candle but we are up against ATH in SPY and the MACD is close to rolling over so something to watch.  Pullback may be imminent at some point.

 QQQ has a great consolidation setup.  I fully expect this to break out Mon/ Tues

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Nov 5 - Continued weakness in equities

Sold out of the VXX put spreads at a loss @ .49 and waiting to see if the market consolidates soon.  It is a bit unclear whether we will have a short term pullback or whether the market will step in today/ fri to test ATH.  Oil/ gold also seeing weakness.

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Nov 4 - Mild weakness, added VXX short

short VXX via 18/19 put spreads Nov 6 @.56.  Still have SPY call spreads and am thinking I will lighten up going into the later part of the month where seasonality is more favorable.  There's a chance we consolidate for a bit here in equities before going higher.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Nov 3 - took profits IWM but still looking long

IWM is jammed above its upper bollinger and thought it might be best to take profits especially with VIX up for the day.  I'm looking for consolidation/ slight pullback below the upper band to re-enter.  Still holding SPY 211/212 call spreads into Nov 20 expiry

Nov 3 - Still long IWM

The equities market continues to drive up.  It is extremely likely SPY will see ATH soon.  QQQ already is there and IWM is playing catch up.

Look at the grain of the 1 hr chart, very steady and we burned through negative divergence
 ATH very close.  I don't expect to see much of a pause when we hit resistance.

The 10 min chart shows nothing bearish.  
 USO making a huge move today.  Unfortunately I had exited USO longs a couple days ago

Monday, November 2, 2015

Nov 1 - stopped out of SPY short

I had a very tight stop and it triggered this morning.  Put on a IWM long as we are seeing pretty good strength relative to other indexes.  Could go to 118 in short order on a measured move.  That said we are still very overbought (so keeping a tight leash on this) but through end of year looking for retests of ATH.

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...