Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Dec 28 - Currently long CMG, CTRP, SOHU, BABA, BIDU, FXE

Added CTRP and SOHU today.  Obviously bullish and looking for a short term pop maybe more out of consolidation in next 1-2 mo.  For the general indexes, I am guessing some upward movement but not expecting much and perhaps chop after Trump's inauguration until April.

Stopped out of USO short today.  That wasn't a good bet.

Still short VXX via Jan/ Mar puts.  I am up 75% and 50% respectively.  Fading the Trump fear turned into a monster trade.  If I can find 1-2 more of these next year...

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Dec 22 - Long FXE, BIDU, BABA and short USO

Picked up Feb calls in all 3.  Eyeing GLD calls but having been burned on the last trade treading carefull and waiting for dampening volatility.  Perhaps the first week of Jan will be the time to go long.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Dec 17 - Market consolidating for now, GLD longs stopped out

FOMC torpedoed by GLD longs in a big way and I was stopped out mid session.  May look to go long in a week or two once volatility dries up a bit.  Added some BIDU and YELP longs but otherwise not exposed too much.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Dec 12 - Added a bit to GLD longs, sold IWM, COP, XOP longs

I cashed in energy Jan ITM calls for 70% return on today's huge open.  I have crushed my pre-election longs and my only gaffe which unfortunately which was major was selling WFC around 51 when now it is in the high 50's.  That would've been 50k in profit.  I think that was the one time I should've paid more attention to the fundamental situation as repealing Frank Dodd was huge and not just an overreaction.

Still holding Jan/ Mar VXX puts which are now very deep in the money and a modest batch of CMG calls from Friday.  Otherwise I am pretty thin on longs and waiting for the next rotation.

Still not clear what will happen with GLD but I am favoring a bounce to high 110's this month or Jan.  Selling pressure seems to have slowly weakened.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Dec 9 - Added to GLD longs

Added Jan 5 GLD 115 calls at .5.  A bit too early probably but will need two things to happen

1.  volatility and volume to NOT increase from today
2.  a positive reaction or lack thereof at Fed announcement

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Dec 8 - Booking partial gains

Sold 1/2 Jan ITM XOP, COP, IWM calls from pre-election for 60+%.  Sold 1/3 VXX Jan/ Mar DITM puts which are up almost as much and will slowly scale out of them in upcoming week.s  I had sold off the OTM Jan puts last week.

The Mar VXX puts which I had touted as the trade of the year is crushing it.   Post is here.

I bought  Mar VXX 55 puts @ 21.75 and now they are at 29.5

Bought some GLD 114 Dec 30 calls @ .44 as volatility is diminishing and I could easily see a bounce to 117-119

Monday, November 28, 2016

Nov 28 - Slight pullback/ short term very overbought but trend is still up

Haven't changed positions in 2 weeks and letting the market do its work.  A mild sell off is potentially around the corner but am holding for now.

Still see more upside here to the 230's.

Also have the target of low 20's for VXX

You can see how the intense hedging activity pre election provided fuel for this rally

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Nov 15 - Sector rotation as equities continue up

SPY moving up on weak volume.  Let's see if it holds.  Still holding longs, major position is a big batch of Mar ITM VXX puts.  Tech staged a big bounce today and energy also.  We might be looking at musical chairs until the end of the year.

Still have target of low 20's in VXX within 2 mo

Monday, November 14, 2016

Nov 14 - Equities consolidate

Other than tech, blue chips are consolidating for another rip up.  Will try and post more thoughts later today.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Nov 9 - Markets rip to the upside and it isn't over yet!

The Trump win turned out to be a quickly erased non event and buyers stepped in a big way today.  This move combined with bullish seasonality might result in a really crazy rally.  I am betting at minimum a mid sized one but think we go a lot higher.  People will start freaking out and start redeploying money into their accounts and push the market higher.

Discretionary account made a huge move today.  Now +10%.  In order of holdings,
TNA, BIIB, COP ITM Jan calls, IWM ITM Dec calls
I sold WFC today and maybe reload on wkness

Volatility account is +19%
VXX Jan and Mar deep ITM puts

Cecil Fielder account is -35% (for some reason, my OTM Jan puts decreased in value today)

I posted this chart a month ago.  It is playing out to a tee.  We are going to hit 225-230 in SPY within 2 months.

Didn't even test level 2.
 We got a bear trap in NYA and now it is ripping higher.

Nov 9 - Not the end of the world

We just went from limit lock down -5% to even.  There are buyers out there.  Gold, Treasuries, and other safe haven assets getting sold off as we speak.  

Today was pretty lateral day for me and just repositioning.
I got blown out of HMSY and sold on open.  Took some profits in WFC.  Took a loss on BIDU (might be overreacting but don't like the China trade for now).  Proceeds from those parked into deep ITM IWM Dec calls.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Nov 7 - Massive short squeeze

Still need to see what will happen tomorrow but obvious to see what the markets want.

The Mar VXX puts moving nicely up over 10% already

Discretionary acct at -2%
Volatility acct at +15%
Cecil Fielder acct at -25% (due to some bone headed trades but it is well positioned to move up)

All three accounts I am guessing will be up 25-50%+ by end of year assuming the election pans out.

Friday, November 4, 2016

Nov 4 - A very high probability/ high return trade, my trade of the year

Mar VXX 55 puts @ 21.75.  I have a big batch of them.  Some Jan puts but this is my core position.

This could easily go up 50% in the next 2-3 mo.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Nov 2 - I am starting to buy here

Got long WFC and short VXX (Jan OTM puts).  Closed out XLF puts today also.

I think the play is to buy quality, blue chip names that you would be willing to hold in the event Trump get elected.  In other words long term holds.  In either election event, I feel strongly after some potential initial turbulence the market blasts much higher.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Oct 30 - Equities on standby

I have to admit I am not trying to get caught up in all this Clinton email noise but for sure the market looks soggy.  High beta is getting whacked and I am leaning towards some kind of small/ mid sized flushout to start the Q4 rally.  Perhaps all it will take is a Clinton win and we are off the races.

I lightened up my longs a lot this week and only have the Dec VXX puts, HMSY, and BIDU.  In general was a very disappointing week as I had profits on most of my positions but didn't act quickly enough.  AT close I put on XLF puts for a short term play.  I am looking to add biotech at some point but not now.  Also would like to add WFC again but want a pullback.

In all, my positioning is more of wait and see mode.

Negative divergence on daily

And if we sell off I will look to cover when stochs/ RSI bottom out.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Oct 27 - Lightening up on equities

I voluntarily sold WFC today which was my biggest position and involuntarily sold TDC.  I added a small WFC short and SPY short at close.  I am still bullish on WFC but think it needs a breather/ consolidation.

TSLA/ BIDU earnings turned out to more or less non events.

I don't like how soggy the indexes have looked and looks like that may drag into the election.  I'm not totally sure but market isn't moving like I thought it would.  The China stocks/ IPO's getting wobbly was a warning sign which was one reason I dumped my YRD a couple days ago.

Right now sitting on BIDU, TSLA, BIIB, HMSY, and deep ITM Dec VXX puts.

Looking for a pullback to one of the two levels and perhaps after the election a big ramp up to the 48-50 range.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Oct 25 - More equities chop, added HMSY, TDC, BIDU longs

The positions now includes in order of size


My proxy for the overall market

Monday, October 24, 2016

Oct 24 - I am massively bullish into end of year

Indexes coiling up for upside.  It's possible we see a flush out to level 1 or level 2 as indicated in the SPY chart but that would be a gift for longs to add.

I am adding CMG, BIIB, and TSLA to the portfolio this week.  Already have a solid portion of WFC and YRD.  Also eyeing FB but I missed the recent move.

Maybe a potential flush out but I am in any event favoring a 3-5%+ move by end of year up.

 Very nice set up w BIIB
 CMG basing and we might finally leave this range by EOD
 TSLA which is not something I am interested in looks like a very good set up
 WFC basing well
 Sitting in a triangle and I expect this to break to the upside at some point.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Oct 20 - YRD might be coiling for a big 10%+ move up

Volume and range really dying off here which is good

Oct 20 - Equities chop, added CMG for pre-earnings runup

Still in YRD which is consolidating nicely and the indexes continue to churn.  Possible we see a flush out in the next week or two but things look poised for a strong end of the year run.

Sold the other 1/2 GLD this morning and who knows I might miss the runup to 124 that I was targeting but I think I have more interesting plays that have better longer term value.

Also still long BIIB, WFC.

Added CMG as a pre-earnings play and if we get a good run up will pull some off before earning on Tuesday.

A really fantastic range to trade in
 VIX if it breaks this trendline could trigger strong buying in equities

YRD has thoroughly spooked me the last 2 days with the wild near 10% swings but looks like healthy consolidation.  I have high hopes for this one.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Oct 19 - Added more WFC

I subbed out 50% of my GLD calls for Nov WFC calls.  I am looking to add Dec calls tomorrow perhaps.  Depends on how things close.  Target is 48-49 by Dec.

Oct 19 - GLD finally moving, YRD bounces

Not a bad day and I finally cut loose CMCM and basically wrote off most of the option premium.  Only sitting on YRD which has made a very nice recovery.  I am thinking that China stocks might slow down until November once indexes might break out of this zone.

GLD I am targeting 123-124.

WFC doing well, BIIB soso.   My VXX puts doing great despite a modest up day in SPY.

I made a big gaffe and once again missed the move in oil.

The rounded bottom and miners leading which is bullish

Here again you can see miners leading

 still have a crazy target of 40 in YRD.  If that happens I will cash 400% on my Nov calls

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...