Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Jan 20 - Maybe a short term floor?

We have had a few false signals but this has been the best long signal so far in a while.  That said, it isn't a perfect one but significantly more robust than the one 2 days ago.  There is the possibility this potential bounce gets sold off into again.  I would have preferred to see VIX spike harder and to see more intraday range on equities but this is a pretty good start.

Sitting very long via SPY/ IWM and seeking at a few day bounce.

CPC spiked again and perhaps this time it will lead to a meaningful bounce

Treasury yields once again spiked down like two days ago.  When it overshoots the trendline like this, could be sign of excessive fear and exhaustion.

 $NYMO is grinding out a bottom but it isn't a good indicator to make short term moves right now
 SPY sitting on the ledge of support after slipping off the cliff earlier in the day
 SPY came close to the first weekly target which was enough for me to close shorts
 VIX on the hourly in an upward channel/ wedge with a sell signal.  As the market has bled down, it has ignored these signals because of the trending momentum.  For a low to be established, the channel needs to break.
 $VXO/ $VIX/ $VXN/ $VXV all displaying various potential reversal candles, some more than others.

Overshoot here above trendline perhaps resolved soon

This is the most promising VIX-type chart as we are right up against the trendline and printed a black reversal candle.







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