Thursday, February 11, 2016

Feb 11 - Getting close

Looking to cover SPY shorts pretty soon.  If one were to be safe, either today or tomorrow.  The daily oscillators on SPY/ VIX are close were they need to be and risk of a big short squeeze is increasing.  Who knows maybe a big waterfall event is around the corner but this is good enough for me.

Once the hourly gets oversold, I will unload a big chunk of the short positions.

The yellow area in CCI/ stochs is where I plan to close things out.


Doug said...

Followed ur call to add shorts. I covered most shorts in the pre-market and in early trade. Sold most of my oversized position in TLT too in pre-market and early open.

Greenlander said...

Good work. I think the risk/ reward for shorts is diminishing now. I am leaning towards closing out today. For sure I am not holding over weekend long or short. Next week is OPEX which might act as a tailwind for longs. Just a hope, but if we get that spring rally, there could be a lot of time to go long so going to wait until it is probably that a downside waterfall event is off the table. We'll see.

Doug said...

I'm very bearish, but markets have a way of surprising you, so when you're handed a nice gain in a very short time period, you should take it.

China could announce some kind of stimulus (or something) on Monday for example (doubt it). I'll be looking to short any rips in the days ahead.

Here's a few thoughts on why we're likely in an extended bear market:

Greenlander said...

Thanks Doug, I'll take a look at yr blog

May 15 - Closed out IWM puts for +120% and picked up DAL and HD Jun calls

I'm going to let the market do its thing this week and probably stay away from new positions until Friday unless something very good pop...