As of now, I am guessing that this week
40% - move through resistance SPY at 194 to test 200 in 2-3 wks where the real tests begin. This is the 'pain trade' scenario where bears get emboldened and squeezed and bulls selling at what is 'obvious' resistance frustratedly watch the market go higher without them.
25% - an early week test of 194 SPY but then a pullback on lower volume to 188-190 then moving up following week or later this week
20% - consolidation btw 188-192 SPY then a move up later in early March
15% - a test/ non-test of 194 SPY then a deeper pullback to mid to lower 180's
So basically lots of scenarios and the 194 level will be something I will be watching for reactions. In any event I have 65% chance of the market breaking 194 resistance in the next 1-2 weeks. This is of course based on the info I have now and we could see a change in sentiment depending on the reaction at this level if and when we get there.
In the bulls favor is excess pessimism by investment in bearish ETF's and a lack of fear in VIX/ VXO. In the bears favor is that on the daily chart stochs/ CCI are close to signaling a sell signal but these have often failed in trending markets whether a bullish or bearish move off of major reversals. This time may be no different.
If we hit 194 early this week, the question will be whether we close above it which would be very bullish and invite late to the party bulls.