Monday, February 22, 2016

Feb 22 - Staying flat for now, mixed signals

Equities had a very strong day but some flies in the ointment, namely the very weak SPY volume which when it hits 100MM or less in an uptrend has almost always led to some near term weakness.  Price action was good though so as of now, slightly leaning towards a small rather than big pullback.

Weakness indicated in yellow box.  I wasn't expecting the weak volume day until we were higher up and closer to 200.  This along w the NYSE up/ down volume ratio is why I didn't reenter longs EOD.

 VIX still has room to go down but it is far enough that it could reverse at any point.
 NYSE up vs down volume ratio was very high which usually has led to small pullbacks the next day and very limited upside even when the signal fails.

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Feb 17 - Large short position now

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