Thursday, March 24, 2016

Mar 24 - Closed 3/4 shorts - looking to reload on potential bounce

Have a core position of 1/4 but unloaded the rest as very possible we bounce as short term time frames pretty oversold.  That said, we have a sell signal on the daily so we probably will go down from here or have a short bounce then back down again

 Too far below lower BB to stick around.  When the trend down is further established I would be more likely to ignore the oversold signal
 2 hr frame below lower BB.  Could trigger a bounce
 Was hoping for 200 target but the short term time frames too oversold to hold here
 VIX currently printing reversal candle but it's too early to say what will happen


Doug said...

OK, you're much more of a short term trader than I. Are your shorts part of a larger portfolio or are you gambling?

I added a small short position yesterday and a little more short today. If the market bounces, will add even more (to partially hedge my longs). With a 70% position in bonds & 5% in GLD, my portfolio is already positioned for bearish action.

Remember what I said about $ funding problems in China (and everywhere else). The oil rally is about finished. We're in a corporate buyback lull period. I wouldn't be surprised if this Friday is a little crescendo low. We'll see.

Anyway, we're in a bear market until price action says otherwise. Lower highs and lower lows.

Greenlander said...

Yes I'm a short term trader. About half the time I am not even in the market.

Looking for 206 SPY at least and/or more VIX divergence to put on shorts that I will hold for intermediate term since trend is still up or until perhaps this proves to be a top. Just playing small ball until we get there.

Doug said...

oopps.. Friday is a holiday.

A SPY price of 206 could be possible. Hell, a new all time high is possible but doesn't seem very probable. If it does get up to 206, I think it would be a fantastic place to short, but the market probably won't give you such a clear and wonderful opportunity! I look forward to seeing your read on the market Thx!

Good weekend!!

Unknown said...

Greenlander, did you reload shorts at the close? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Greenlander said...

Nope I didn't reload and in the end closed the remaining 1/4 short also. I'm in no rush here. Tops are difficult to trade. That is, if this is a top. I am increasingly bearish but nothing actionable enough to go short over wknd. If we drop Monday, so be it.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...