Monday, April 11, 2016

Apr 11 - short SPY target 198-200

I went short SPY yesterday and am holding today.  I am next expecting a big pullback as there is a good chance we see some consolidation range like last time and a bounce back up to 205ish in SPY if this pullback occurs.  Such a consolidation range would frustrate both bulls and bears.  After that, maybe the market corrects in May/ June but I wouldn't totally discount that ATH's happen.

For now, just playing only the short/ intermediate term future.

so far, SPY could just be consolidating like the other indexes so will be watching this closely.  I would like a breach of lower trendline to feel more confident that uptrend is definitively weakening.  In other words, bulls still in control and we could see another leg up.
 The volume profile where selling days are even with up days could be indicating this up move could be stalling out.
 VIX could have based and it made a very strong move in the last hour
 Amazing.  I could have gone long for a swing trade as this setup was enough to get my out of a NUGT short but couldn't quite wrap my head around another big move up.  Long term bullish case is getting pretty strong now.



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