Friday, May 27, 2016

May 27 - Small pullback likely SPY

The 2 hr signal hasn't failed this recent turn up from the lows so there's a very solid chance of a mild pullback of some kind.  I am still extremely bullish long term though.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

May 26 - Pause before the breakout to 220 SPY?

We are super overbought and due for some kind of pullback/ pause for a few days to a week.  More importantly, SPY is right up against major resistance and if it breaks, I think we have a good chance of seeing 5%+ upside this summer.  I am having a hard time wrapping my head around it but the tape is so stubbornly upwards.  I am currently short as of today but not planning on holding long, the longest through Tues before Jun 1 which could see the start of a new leg up.

the hourly is really overbought and still holding up pretty strong.  3 unfilled gaps!  And within a very short time frame.  Usually after two you usually see some pullbacks but even today held.  To me this indicates a serious bid under the market.

I keep thinking about how much doubt there was and chatter about a H + S pattern recently.  It failed miserably and reminds me a lot of 2009 when we had similar sentiment which led to a solid 3 mo rally and more.

 Again we have a strong move off a low and roughly the same time period, about 2 mo then a lot more upside.

 The 2 hr printing an RSI sell signal
 Low volume in daily very close to triggering a sell
 2010-2012 saw two big corrections and breakouts.  There was often a 'knuckling' or pause (indicated in blue) before things broke out.  And when they did it was a straight line.
 After the big correction we had a multiwave breakout
 2015-2016 have shown a much bigger and lengthier slowdown.   If the move up is proportionate, it could be a huge move.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

May 24 - Equities starting a new upleg?

I sold off EOD out of SPY longs from yesterday but leaving the chance that we move higher to test the upper end of the range.  Whether we break above it now I am less doubtful and more convinced that we chop around before making a decisive move.

GLD looks like it is following through with the original short setup I had a few weeks ago.  It would be great to get a bounce to short into as there is a lot more downside.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

May 17 - Potential leg up in GLD

I have been steering clear of equities as things have been very noisy.  Got stopped out of AAPL short last week and was flat over the weekend.  Potential for room to downside though but not entirely clear.

GLD however is making a really picture perfect consolidation.  This is one of the best setups I have seen in months.  I am in a big long position (short term) here.  I kept thinking it would pull back for the summer but it keeps grinding sideways.

Thursday, May 12, 2016

May 12 - Potential AAPL downside

Sitting in Jun ITM puts here from the morning.  Looking for low 80's here.

May 12 - Equities churning, re-shorting GLD/ SLV

Went back to short metals position yesterday based on the hourly and just generally weak activity during the day on the 5 min chart.  Hoping that price drops back into the consolidation zone.

Shorted AAPL also this morning after getting stopped out of a long.  If we close where we are or below, AAPL could fall much further.

As for equities, it's kind of a mess and wouldn't advise getting involved in either direction for now.

I don't have the hourly short signals annotated but basically it would be the opposite of the buy signals in green.

AAPL broke important support intraday.  It also exists on the daily chart.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

May 10 - Equities bouncing strongly, 209-210 SPY on deck?

Just cleared off my plate and closed out intraday SPY long and also GLD short (which undoubtedly looking to re-enter).  I like SPY to hit 209-210 but things look stretched here.  Only in UUP calls now.

Looks due for a bounce and NUGT might be a very short term play

Up near resistance so waiting to see how we react

May 10 - Re-entered SPY long pre market

Looking for a gap and go day.  Will be unloading everything if and when we get to 208-209 SPY

Monday, May 9, 2016

May 9 - Exited longs this morn, still long UUP

I didn't like what I was seeing as there were clear distribution spikes on the 5 min chart and we might need some retests/ more churn for this move to get moving again.  I am still bullish short term but would like to a safer entry point.

Re-entered GLD short at 121.  Looks like GLD finally doing what I thought it would as I got faked out Friday.  If I was on the ball, I would've re-entered with small position short at end of day Friday but at least today as acting as confirmation of a potentially big move down.  I think there is possibility it hits low 110's.

Friday, May 6, 2016

May 6 - Equities bullish reversal

Looking good for SPY and major indexes.  Could be a bullish week coming up.  Holding big SPY long but exited GLD short on open today.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

May 5 - CPC ratio issues 1 day buy signal

CPC ratio closed at 1.18 today (little orange box).  Last 9 times with a single day reading above 1.10 it hasn't resulted in a down day in equities the next day.  2 of the days were flat.  Last time this triggered was Apr 30 and SPY went up 1% the next day.  This is positive for a spike tomorrow or Mon.

May 5 - Equities bouncing, maybe short term bottom or close to it/ USD continues to move up

Added SPY long exposure on the morning dip and so far so good.  UUP calls are in good shape and GLD puts I feel the least confident about but I will need to give that one time.

Positive divergence playing out so far

Promising so far but today's up move might need to fail to allow equities to gather more energy to move definitively up and out
 GLD short still holding but not an easy trade
 Promising set up but will have to respect the bullish trend if this short setup doesn't materialize soon
 FXE rejected which is a positive for both my UUP long/ GLD short
 VXO might have topped yesterday short term

May 5 - Potential USD bullish reversal

Still long USD via UUP and short GLD.  There has been some decent inverse correlation btw the two so will be pretty obvious soon whether the reversal will occur.

We had an overshoot and if it reverses it might bring a stronger bounce as the dip below would've created a bear trap.

FXE (euro) up against major resistance and if it reverses here, will push the USD and accordingly UUP higher.

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

May 4 - Potential short term bottom in equities

Settling into a low volume wedge which might break out tomorrow or perhaps have a false breakout and breakout later.  What bulls don't want to see is a resumption of large intraday range and volume.  If not, the action should be construed as bullish.

May 4 - Equities may be stabilizing, short GLD/ long USD

Equities may be forming a short term base but remains to be seen depending on the close.  Finally some positive divergences on the hourly also but price action is very messy.  Considering that we have broken intermediate trends in some indexes and daily selling spikes, I am in no hurry to go long but will take a modest position if things stabilize EOD/ tomorrow.  A clear sign would be diminished volume and positive CCI/ RSI divergence.

This morning took on GLD short/ UUP long.

Not bad positive divergence in NYSE.  Not quite actionable yet.

Overshoot and buying volume spike was basis for entering UUP long.
 Miner weakness, dollar strength, potential for equities to bounce, and negative divergence the reason for GLD short.  I like this one as it is possible to set the stop not too far above recent highs.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

May 3 - Equities continue downward dribble, GLD/ GDX might be at a turning point

Equities continued the short term trend down today and I was looking for a late day ramp to go long around 3PM but it didn't materialize.  Flat barring some FEYE calls.  Wanted to hold the AAPL calls but was concerned about the overall market.  Had we been in an uptrend I would have surely held.

Looking to fade a big gap up or go long on a test of lower support levels.

IWM looks strong but cracking the lower trendline will be a problem.

QQQ is in a confirmed downtrend and tapped a rising trendline multiple times already.

This is basically my playbook for tomorrow.  Lots of possibilities which is why I would prefer to see the market play its hand first rather than getting potentially whipsawed.
 I was super bullish long term and still am but had to respect miners tanking today and yesterday in spite of favorable conditions such as equities selling off and the dollar tanking.  Possible we test the upper yellow bar or even the lower bar.  Also possible we continue blasting up.

This is a big reason that gave me caution.  We should be blasting up into the next leg up but seem a bit stalled out and have negative divergence on the daily.  Things might need to settle with time or price to set up the next move up which I will be more than happy to ride.  Very possible that we pullback beyond the recent consolidation zone as failed second legs often correct hard.

May 3 - Equities still dropping

I trimmed back my GLD positions as I was seeing price go against tailwinds like weaker dollar and equities tanking.  Looking to reload at some point as I am still long term bullish but a pullback might be around the corner.

SPY getting close to support on hourly and daily.  Maybe a 1-3 more points.

Yellow bar is a possible bounce zone.

I would look to temporarily close shorts at the lower BB

Sunday, May 1, 2016

May 1 - Intermediate term sell signal SPY on Friday, GLD looks like it is starting another leg up

I really don't know what will happen here long term as we are getting conflicting readings but odds seem good that equities will pullback May/ Jun into the middle of the range.  Approximately 198 in SPY.  That said, I am not short as I would prefer to see if and when we get a bounce this week.  Tech is very oversold and daily charts are issuing pretty promising reversal candles.  What happens after  a few days though is unknown and I may be looking at going short on a fading bounce.

I have a boatload of GLD Aug 113 calls and am going to make a slight adjustment and push them out to Sept 30 115 calls.  Also will probably add SLV Oct calls.  I am looking for a target of 140 in GLD.

One interesting thing is the USD.  We are at a zone of what is typically a bounce but if the level fails there could be much more room to the downside.

Seasonality presents some headwinds for May/ June courtesy of Macro Man

May/ June not friendly to the bulls recently.

AAPL might be poised for a technical bounce and will be looking at very small position of Jun 90 calls tomorrow.
 Previous gap downs have been met with some level of gap fill previously.
 SPY issued a daily sell signal based on the volume profile.  Ideal scenario would be a retest of highs on lower buying volume then back down again to the middle of the previous range, around 198-200 SPY
 The weekly shows alternating red and white candles showing increasing weakness in the trend.  If we correct, I have no idea how far but I would guess 1/3-1/2 retrace before bouncing back up.
 SPY issued buy signal on the hourly.  Caution is warranted though as the intermediate trend line was broken with strong selling volume.
 QQQ may be forming a head shoulders formation.  Any bounce should be monitored for strength.

July 11 - GLD sucks

stopped out of GLD yesterday for -25%.  Holding off on reentry and maybe will enter if we drop another level. SPY on the other hand is crus...